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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 1st, 2019–Feb 2nd, 2019

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Kootenay Boundary.

Fresh storm slabs are primed for human triggers. Use small slopes without consequence to test the bond of the new snow.

Confidence

Moderate - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain

Weather Forecast

FRIDAY NIGHT: Snow; 15-25 cm. / Moderate to strong, southwesterly winds / Low -3 / Freezing level valley bottom.SATURDAY: Cloudy / Light, southwesterly winds / High -3 C / Freezing level valley bottom.SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy / Light, southwesterly winds / High-5 C / Freezing level below valley bottom.MONDAY: Mix of sun and cloud / Light, northwesterly winds / High -14 C / Freezing level below valley bottom.

Avalanche Summary

No avalanches were reported in the region on Thursday. However, fresh storm slabs reactive to human triggers will likely form Friday night.

Snowpack Summary

15-20 cm of new snow has covered a wide variety of snow surfaces. Sun crusts on south aspects to mountaintops, some of which have small surface hoar(weak, feathery crystals) growing on top, which is a particularly nasty combination. Most exposed alpine areas have been heavily wind effected. 5-10 mm surface hoar has been widespread in areas that are protected from sun and wind.Around 20 to 40 cm down, expect to find a crust on south aspects and feathery surface hoar crystals in sheltered and shaded areas. The surface hoar is currently the primary layer of concern and may be most reactive at treeline elevations on shady aspects. However, no recent avalanches have been reported on this layer.The remainder of the snowpack is generally well-settled and strong in most locations.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.