Avalanche Forecast

Partly sunny skies and a modest diurnal bump in afternoon temperatures should swap the greatest avalanche threat from lingering storm slabs in the morning to a loose wet problems on solar aspects in the near and above treeline elevation bands by Monday afternoon. Shifting winds should have cross-loaded a variety of aspects such that wind slab will not specifically be identified, but watch for local loading patterns. 

It's nearly spring and the sun's strength and high water content of the new snow will make for a dangerous mix on steeper slopes where even a slow moving and initially shallow avalanche would be powerful and could force you into unintended terrain traps. Changes in the snow will likely be rapid, so think about the avalanche hazard above and below while planning your route Monday.   

Remember the NWAC forecast applies to elevations up to the Cascade crest (~7000 to 8000 ft). Significant new snowfall was received near and above these elevations over the weekend and likely pose a higher avalanche hazard.  

The weekend rain or light snow accumulations along with ample terrain anchors should greatly limit the avalanche danger below treeline. 

Due to the low snowpack, especially below treeline, watch for terrain hazards such as open creeks, partially covered rocks and vegetation. Many areas below treeline do not have enough snow to cause an avalanche danger.

The latest installment of warm and dry weather lasted from early to mid-March and led to more snowpack consolidation and a scarcity of avalanche activity. 

Over the weekend, an atmospheric river brought a one-two punch to the Pacific Northwest. Saturday's event brought 1.5 - 2.5 inches of rain with the snow line around 6000-7000 ft. On Sunday, a low pressure system brought ~6 inches (15 cm) above 6000 ft in the south Cascades and 4500 ft in the north Cascades through 3 pm. Light amounts of new snow were received below these levels. More snow is expected Sunday night.  

NWAC observer Dallas Glass was at Paradise Sunday and observed a climber trigger a loose wet avalanche, size 2, on a steep slope at 6500 ft near treeline (no injuries). He found skier triggered moist storm slabs and loose wet avalanches were possible in the near treeline band involving the 8 inches (20 cm) of new storm snow. 

The snowpack at low elevations remains meager to non-existent with the average snow-line around 4500 ft along the west slopes. The mid and lower snowpack west of the crest consists of layers of stable consolidated rounded grains or melt forms and crusts from multiple warm periods this winter.