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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Nov 27th, 2019–Nov 28th, 2019

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Lizard-Flathead.

Wind slab avalanches remain the primary concern as the Lizard Range is missing out on the storm hitting Alberta.

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the limited number of field observations.

Weather Forecast

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Some isolated flurries continue near the Alberta border with 5-10 cm, no snow expected in the Lizard Range, 60 km/h wind from the east, alpine temperatures drop to -18 C.

THURSDAY: Clearing skies throughout the day with some isolated flurries bringing trace amounts of snow, 30 km/h wind from the east, alpine high temperatures around -15 C.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny, light wind from the northeast, alpine high temperatures around -12 C.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny, light wind, alpine high temperatures around -10 C.

Avalanche Summary

Eastern parts of the region near the Alberta border may have received enough new snow to develop fresh and potentially thick wind slabs, while old wind slabs remain the main concern in western parts of the region such as the Lizard Range and Harvey Pass. Concern is reduced in areas where the snow depths have not yet reach the threshold for avalanches. The last reported avalanches were several small wind slabs last weekend (including this MIN report from Harvey Pass).

Snowpack Summary

The Lizard Flathead region unfortunately missed out on the bulk of the storm that hit Alberta. Little to no snow fell in the Lizard Range while parts of the region near the divide (e.g. south of Sparwood) may have received 10-15 cm of snow over the past few days. The snowpack is still thin with many rocks and trees sticking out. The snowline starts around 1500 m, with about 40 cm of snow around 1700 m, and 50 to 100 cm of snow in the alpine. Two crusts have been reported in the middle of the snowpack. There is uncertainty about how the snow is bonding to these crusts, and they may act as a sliding layer for snow above them. Be prepared to back off to mellow terrain if you encounter signs of instability such as whumpfs or shooting cracks, which could indicate these layers are capable of producing avalanches.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.