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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 15th, 2019–Dec 16th, 2019

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Regions

Northwest Coastal.

New snow, wind, and rising temperatures - best to stick to conservative terrain even if the sun pokes out mid-day.

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the track & intensity of the incoming weather system. We are confident the snowpack will rapidly lose strength with the arrival of the forecast weather.

Weather Forecast

Sunday Night: Periods of snow, 10-20 cm accumulating overnight. Alpine temperature -6 C and rising into Monday. Southwest wind 30-40 km/hr.

Monday: Snow, 15-25 cm accumulating by the end of the day. Alpine temperatures reaching 0 C. South wind 30 gusting to 60 km/hr. Freezing level 1100 m.

Tuesday: Heavy snow, 25-45 cm. Alpine temperature -3 C. South wind 25 gusting to 80 km/hr. Freezing level 900 m.

Wednesday: Snow and flurries, 10-30 cm. Alpine temperature -3 C. South wind 15 gusting to 45 km/hr. Freezing level 800 m.

Avalanche Summary

There have been no recent reports of avalanche activity. Looking ahead, expect new snow and wind to develop reactive slabs and add load to the snowpack, potentially adding stress to a recently buried surface hoar layer.

Snowpack Summary

Snowfall starting Sunday night will accumulate and develop slab properties with strong south-southwesterly winds.

This new storm snow is falling on 10-30 cm of recent snow which covered a concerning layer of surface hoar that formed in areas sheltered from the wind. Reports suggest this layer can be found on all aspects up to treeline elevations. In the alpine, the recent snow covered hard wind slabs and/or sun crusts on south-facing terrain. 

The lower snowpack is generally considered strong, as there has been very little to report in terms of recent avalanche activity or snowpack test results on deeper layers. Snowpack depths at treeline range from 100-150 cm and taper quickly at lower elevations.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.