Avalanche forecast

Gunnison

Crested Butte Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

The snowpack is struggling to adapt to this spring weather. Recent notable avalanche activity includes wet slab and persistent slab avalanches and many more small wet loose avalanches. As temperatures rise today, so will the avalanche danger. Traveling in avalanche terrain will require managing the developing wet avalanche problems on the southern half of the compass and more winterlike persistent slabs on the northern half of the compass. 

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–3

    Weak facets, depth hoar, or collapsible crusts are widespread on the northern half of the compass and on some sunnier aspects at high elevations.  Slabs on top of these weak layers average 2 to 3 feet thick in wind-sheltered terrain. Slabs are thicker and harder in wind-drifted terrain and can step down through older slabs to the ground.    This problem has become stubborn to triggers, often requiring a thin spot on the slope, such as near buried rocks, trees, or where slabs thin from wind effects. Avalanches can break widely across multiple terrain features and be remotely triggered from flat terrain near or below steep slopes without warning signs. The problem can be avoided on slope angles consistently less than about 30 degrees.  

    A couple of persistent slab avalanches that were remotely triggered in the upper Cement Creek area yesterday. 

  • Wet Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    As meltwater drains into the snowpack, it can weaken the bonds of buried facets or depth hoar layers and cause natural or triggered wet slabs.  Be cautious of steep, sunbaked slopes as temperatures increase later in the day and the upper snowpack gets saturated.  You can avoid the problem by traveling early in the day while the snow surface is still frozen or by moving to cold, shady aspects.  

    A wet slab that ran on 2/27 on a southwest aspect above treeline. 

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–1.5

    As the snow surface gets wet and loses cohesion on sun-warmed slopes, watch for natural or triggered point-release avalanches in the upper snowpack.  These can be dangerous if they push you into trees, rocks, or gain volume in long gullies. A few could trigger larger slab avalanches.  Look for rollerballs, pinwheels, or ankle-deep wet snow to identify the problem.  You can avoid the problem by moving to slope angles less than 35 degrees or to colder aspects where the snow surface is frozen.  

    Recent wet loose avalanches on Schuylkill Ridge. S-SW facing slopes. 

Avalanche Discussion

Here are a few recent avalanches to take note of. This link will filter recent slab avalanches in our forecast area. Take note of the wet slabs that have occurred in the last couple of days and the remotely triggered persistent slabs in upper Cement Creek. This link is of a very large slab avalanche that ran yesterday, just north of our forecast area in West Maroon Creek. This link has an example of some of the loose wet avalanches that are occurring. 

Wet slab avalanches occurring in February are exceptionally abnormal for our area. For this winter season, our database has a wet slab occurring back on February 4th, but the more recent string of wet slabs started occurring on February 22nd. Now that it is March 1st, perhaps these spring avalanche problems will not catch you off guard. Otherwise, it is imperative to be aware of the dangerous avalanche conditions that are developing as temperatures rise and water begins moving through the snowpack later in the day. You can still get out and enjoy the afternoon slush, but it will require being aware of and managing the avalanche terrain you are traveling near. 

Heading into Sunday, the avalanche danger is expected to drop with the arrival of cooler temperatures. This will decrease the threat of wet avalanches, which are driving today's elevated avalanche danger rating. However, the threat of wet avalanches may not be completely removed tomorrow if we see a poor overnight freeze and have some sun filtering through the clouds tomorrow. So keep an eye on those overnight temperatures. 

You can also follow this link to last week's summary of conditions. You'll see a few more details about past persistent slab avalanches, among all the other happenings. 

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