Avalanche forecast

Turnagain Pass and Girdwood

Chugach National Forest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Out of date — this forecast expired last year. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

There were 4 human triggered avalanches yesterday 2 to 3’ deep most likely failing on a layer of buried surface hoar. Trying to outsmart this problem may have severe consequences. If you want to avoid the likelihood of being caught in an avalanche the safest option is stick to low angle terrain away from steep overhead slopes.

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SPECIAL ANNOUNCEMENTS:

TODAY is your lucky day! Come find us at the Seattle Ridge motorized parking lot for our annual Turnagain Pass Avalanche Awareness Day! We will be there with Alaska Mining and Diving Supply and the Alaska Avalanche School to chat about avalanches and current conditions and to hang out with the good people of the southcentral Alaska winter community. AMDS will have demo snowmachines, and we’ll be holding down the grill and the fire pit. Stop by anytime from noon until 4:00 p.m. Details Here.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Moderate winds from the east may actively blow snow into fresh wind slabs around 1’ deep. These will be more likely at upper elevations, below ridges, rollovers and in cross loaded gullies. Look out for blowing snow which is an indicator fresh wind slabs are forming. Clues like shooting cracks or snow that becomes stiff underneath you mean you are likely traveling on a wind slab. 

    If the sun has a chance to shine and temperatures feel warm it may be easier to trigger a surface snow avalanche on steep solar aspects. These may release from a point and get larger as they carry more snow down the slope or trigger a small slab avalanche. Seek shadier slopes if you find yourself in the sun and see rollerballs releasing. Worst case scenario, one of these avalanches trigger a large avalanche on a buried weak layer. 

    Other concerns to keep in mind: limit time spent under cornices and give them a lot of room on ridges. Minimize time spent under glide cracks and avoid them if possible because the can release into a large glide avalanche.

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–3

    Recent Avalanches: Yesterday there were a total of 4 human triggered avalanches that were reported, all on Seattle Ridge. Luckily everyone is ok. As a snowmachiner was ascending the Seattle Creek Headwall they triggered an avalanche 2 to 3’ deep and around 150’ wide. The slide sympathetically triggered another avalanche. Both likely failed on buried surface hoar. In Warmup Bowl, an avalanche was remotely triggered on a layer of buried surface hoar 2.5’ deep. A second smaller avalanche looks to have been triggered by a skier/snowboarder. 

    If 4 human triggered avalanches occurring yesterday is not proof enough, our main concern is triggering an avalanche 2 to 3’ deep on a layer of buried surface hoar. This is an unusual situation where a different mindset is essential to not being caught in an avalanche. Typically, concerning layers are not a problem for this long but this one is. It is also very hard if not impossible to determine which slopes are safe. Tracks on a slope have produced avalanches and should not be trusted. Slopes where the layer does not appear to exist or does not seem concerning in snow tests are producing avalanches and should not be trusted. The avalanches we have been seeing are large and in some cases very wide and can be remotely triggered or triggered sympathetically. This means that you may not even be on a steep slope to trigger an avalanche above you. 

    A conservative mindset may change how to think about this unique and dangerous problem. If you try to outsmart this problem there is an increased chance you may trigger a large and highly consequential avalanche. When the snow is dangerous the safest solution is to make terrain choices that get you home safely. The safest option is to avoid traveling on or above steep slopes.

    (3/21/2025)

    Overview of the two avalanches that were believe to have been triggered by a rider ascending the Headwall of Seattle Creek.

    Photo: CNFAIC Staff

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