Avalanche forecast

Central Sierra Nevada

Sierra Avalanche Center
View on map

Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
Out of date — this forecast expired 4 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Dangerous and unusual avalanche conditions exist. Rain and dense snow today will make triggering large avalanches easier. Watch out for places where buried weak snow exists or where wind-drifted snow piles up near ridges. People can trigger avalanches from places below or near steep slopes. Some natural avalanches may be possible. Using flatter terrain away from steep slopes can help avoid today's problems. 

The avalanche danger will rise to HIGH during the night. 

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2–3

    Weak faceted snow buried 1 to 2+ feet below the surface exists at all elevations, with the weakest snow on NW-N-NE-E aspects. Some weak snow is also buried on the southerly aspects in isolated areas. This snowpack structure has created a widespread persistent slab avalanche problem. People triggered several persistent slab avalanches yesterday and caused whumpfing almost everywhere they went. Additional rain and snow will make it even easier to trigger persistent slab avalanches today. Large human-triggered avalanches remain LIKELY today, and some natural avalanches may be possible. Once a fracture starts in the facet layer, it can propagate long distances like a falling row of dominos. Avalanches can break wider than expected, wrap around terrain features, and travel farther downhill than usual. People can also trigger these avalanches remotely from nearby slopes or flat areas at the bottom of a hill. In areas where rain falls on the snow, these avalanches could also have some wet snow characteristics. 

    Shooting cracks, whumpfing, and collapsing represent clear signs of instability. Digging into the snow and probing can help identify the buried weak layer. Increase safety margins by steering clear of any terrain steeper than 30° or terrain connected to/below steep terrain if you see signs of instability or feel weak snow. If there is any uncertainty about whether or not the weak layer exists, play it safe and assume the snowpack is unstable. 

    (12/2/2022)

    Remotely triggered avalanche on the N side of Castle Peak

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2–3

    New snow and wind today will create new wind slabs on top of old wind slabs that have not fully bonded to the snowpack below them. In places where the persistent weak layer mentioned above exists below the wind slabs, they would behave like deeper versions of the persistent slab problem. In other areas where the snow surface was scoured and firm or bare ground existed before the last storm, these wind slabs will behave more like typical wind slabs. Large human-triggered wind slab avalanches remain likely today. They could run longer than usual or trigger additional avalanches as they move downhill. The largest and most unstable wind slabs will exist on NW-N-NE-E-SE aspects. 

    Use clues like blowing snow, cornices above a slope, drifted snow, or other wind-created surface textures to help evaluate which slopes hold wind slabs. Choose travel routes that avoid these wind-loaded areas. Cautious route-finding focusing on lower-angle terrain not connected to steeper terrain can help avoid both avalanche problems today. 

Avalanche Discussion

  • People remotely triggered several large avalanches that failed on the buried facet layer yesterday. These occurred on Castle Peak, in the Deep Creek drainage, on Jakes Peak, and on Carpenter Peak.  Fortunately, no one was caught in these avalanches. 
  • Backcountry users reported whumpfing and snowpack collapsing all across the forecast area on a variety of aspects and elevations. The facets buried under the new snow are widespread across the region and remain weak.
  • A party reported some lingering wind slab instability near a ridgeline as well. 
  • Before this storm, the snowpack was weak and shallow. Numerous rocks, trees, stumps, and other obstacles existed on the surface or just below the surface. These obstacles remain close enough to the surface to hit and would increase the consequence of getting caught in an avalanche.

Regions covered