Avalanche forecast

Northwest Mountains

Crested Butte Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Out of date — this forecast expired 4 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

You could trigger an avalanche in the upper snowpack where winds deposited stiffer snow.  Simply read surface textures to identify areas that received recent drifting and steer around them.  A small chance lingers for you to trigger an avalanche that breaks deep in the snowpack if you are unfortunate and find a trigger point.  Avoid rocky terrain, unsupported slopes with cliff bands below, and places with highly variable depth from wind effect.  Slopes with uniform coverage and depths greater than 6 feet offer safer options. 

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    2–3.5

    Slabs ranging from 5 to 8+ feet thick are resting over faceted weak layers in the lower snowpack around much of the compass. These weak layers have generally adjusted to their current load and become difficult to trigger. The most suspect areas to release this avalanche problem would be from trigger points or areas where the snowpack thins to a below-average depth. Such as near rock bands, on some slopes that previously avalanched and have refilled, or where winds have formed variable snow depths. Persistent slab avalanches can propagate widely through the terrain, or be remotely triggered from low-angle slopes connected to steeper slopes. You can reduce your risk by traveling on slopes with a deep, uniform snowpack, and you can reliably avoid the problem by traveling on slope angles that are consistently less than 30 degrees and not connected to steeper terrain above.  

     

     

    1/4:  A destructive natural avalanche in Red Lady Bowl broke full-width last week.  This avalanche would be hard to survive.

Avalanche Discussion

An increase in northerly winds may transport snow and deposit it onto leeward terrain features creating shallow, drifts in open terrain.  Unstable snow in the upper snowpack from recent drifting can be managed by identifying smooth and/or stiffer deposits of snow tucked behind breaks in the terrain and simply avoiding those suspect-looking drifts.

A chance remains for avalanches to break on weak layers near the bottom of the snowpack.  The likelihood of this happening varies significantly across the forecast zones.  In the Northwest Mountains, where the snowpack is commonly 200 cm (6+ feet) or deeper, it's difficult for the weight of a person to impact deep weak layers.  In the snow-favored areas of the Northwest Mountains, avoid terrain with obvious trigger points and simply travel where the snowpack looks deep and uniform.

In the Southeast Mountains, there is an increased chance for you to trigger avalanches deeper in the snowpack.  A shallower snowpack allows the weight of a person to impact weak layers near the bottom of the snowpack.  Depths in the Southeast Mountains generally range from 100 cm to 200cm ( 3 to 6 feet).  Recent avalanches from control work at CBMR suggest that avalanches breaking near the ground are still possible as well as this recent avalanche from Walrod Gulch in lower Cement Creek.  You probably will not experience signs of instability like audible collapses in the snowpack, but if you do, take it as a clear indication that human-triggered avalanches are probable.  Pick more conservative options while traveling through the Southeast Mountains and terrain with snowpack depths around 5 feet or less.  Choose slopes with angles less than 35 degrees in steepness that are not connected to steeper terrain nearby.

Regions covered