Avalanche forecast

Selkirk Mountains

Idaho Panhandle Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Out of date — this forecast expired 4 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Be on the lookout for signs of wind transported snow, such as scoured surfaces and filled in areas. The fresh wind slabs are sitting on a weak layer that could avalanche, if triggered. Steep, wind loaded areas near ridgelines will be the most likely place to trigger avalanches in these conditions. Remote triggers are possible today, so be aware of the snow under your feet and how it is connected to snow on slopes above you. Error on the side of caution today, as cold temperatures will complicate any bad decision.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Recent snowfall and winds have made ideal conditions for the creation of new wind slabs. The winds made a big shift last weekend. After the last snowstorm, winds were coming out of the Southwest and then made an abrupt shift to the North. Due to this, fresh wind slabs can be expected on either side of the ridge, complicating travel plans. Once the North winds showed up, the temperature dropped as well. Winds continued through the early part of the week, depositing more snow into starting zones above treeline. The wind slabs are sitting on weak, faceted snow and have the potential for remote triggering.

     

    (12/21/2022)

    Fresh wind slab

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1–1.5

    We’ve been tracking a persistent weak layer problem in the snowpack for the past couple of weeks. Although the layer of concern continues to get buried with each passing storm, it remains the biggest problem in the snowpack. The good news is that the deeper the layer gets, the less likely we are to trigger it. The bad news is that if it does get triggered, it has the capability to produce a large avalanche. As the snowpack settles and stiffens, the likelihood of a remote trigger increases. Currently, the most likely place we’ve found to trigger the weak layer is near shallow spots in the snowpack such as, rocks, stumps or brushy areas.

    (12/20/2022) Photo: J Thompson

Avalanche Discussion

Bitterly cold temperatures look to be on the way out, but cold temperatures will continue to linger this morning. Hopefully we’ll feel a little relief by the afternoon. Pack an extra down jacket, some heat packs and those down mitts that you never use but sit in your closet!

For such a cold, low pressure system, Tuesday’s storm was a good producer, depositing 10-14’’ of light density snow across the zone in less than 24 hours. Following the storm came the cold and wind…so, here we are today. I already talked about the wind deposited snow being a new problem, but something else to keep an eye on is the “trigger point’. The ‘trigger point’ is the point where new, loose snow turns into a slab. Usually this coincides with a warmup, which hasn’t happened yet. According to NOAA, temperatures will steadily rise across the zone until Monday when temperatures are forecasted to be in the high 30’s. It's hard to say when the snow on the surface will slab up enough to be a problem, but my hunch is that the avalanche danger will increase when it does.

We can learn so much from you! Please tell us what you see out there. IPAC launched a new OBSERVATION PLATFORM last week. You should check it out. It’s much simpler than the previous version, plus it’s linked to the National Avalanche database so the information can be used on a much larger scale. Enjoy the pow and stay on the right side of the crack!

 

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