Avalanche forecast

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Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

On Sunday, you could encounter small, wet avalanches on steep southerly slopes. As a dramatic warm-up and minimal cloud cover will warm snow surfaces, watch for moist snow surfaces, rollerballs, and wet avalanches as indicators of the danger. Be cautious of hitting obstacles in the shallow, early season snow cover.

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1

    Expect wet loose avalanches especially where rocks and trees could drop snow onto steep slopes below. If you see rollerballs or wet avalanches, move to more shaded terrain or lower-angle slopes. Even though these avalanches will be small, they could push you off your feet on the very steep slopes where they're anticipated.

    With Sunday's warm-up, we're uncertain about the prevalence and elevation of wet loose avalanches. Avalanches will be isolated, at best, at elevations and aspects where the snow surface doesn't warm sufficiently. You can easily manage this by looking for signs of instability: watch for fresh avalanches, rollerballs and moist snow surfaces that slide easily. There's not enough snow below 5,000ft for wet avalanches of consequence. 

    (4/2/2024)

    An example of wet loose avalanches from April 2024.

    Photo: Willie Webster

Avalanche Discussion

While we expect dramatically warming temperatures in some areas, this is a complex scenario of stratified warm and cold air not mixing as cleanly as usual. You likely will still find cold air pooling in valleys with overlying warmer air. Recently, the zone has seen very cold temperatures and valley inversions. Additionally, the weak, solstitial sun is low and won't warm snow surfaces as effectively as it would later in the winter. South aspects are holding thin surface crusts below about 6,500ft. The crust will need to melt before wet avalanches can occur. 

On Saturday, an NWAC forecaster traveled on southerly slopes near Cutthroat Peak and found a thin sun crust topped with surface hoar. The upper 8" of the snowpack was weakening with developing facets. She also report small loose dry avalanches on steep, southerly slopes at upper elevations. You'll find ample signs of drifting and wind-affected snow. However, it will be difficult to trigger a wind slab avalanche. It's been some time since significant slabs were built. On Friday, observers in the Hairpin Valley triggered a very small, shallow wind slab in a similar location to another one reported on the 27th. While these small avalanches are important, most observers report signs of wind-drifted snow but no signs of instability.  Surface hoar and faceting have been reported on the surface of many slopes. While wind drifting has been widely observed, cornices remain small. 

Lower elevations snowpacks are still thin. As you gain elevation a deeper but variable snowpack exists. Snow depths above 6000ft range from 3 to 5 feet (80-150+cm). Early-season obstacles of trees, rocks, logs, and creeks are exposed.

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