The avalanche danger is HIGH on mid and upper-elevation slopes, where it is very likely that you will trigger an avalanche failing on one of many buried weak layers within the snowpack. These avalanches will be deep enough to bury, injure, or kill a person. Traveling in avalanche terrain is NOT recommended.
Strong winds have and will continue to create sensitive wind drifts on all aspects at the mid and upper-elevations. Cornices have grown large and may break further from ridgelines than expected. Any avalanche involving wind-drifted snow may step down to a buried persistent weak layer. Traveling in avalanche terrain is NOT recommended
It continues to snow, and as it does, we can expect to see avalanches fail in density changes within the new snow or at the old/new snow interface that in some cases has faceted snow in play. Dry-loose avalanches will also be on the rise as the storm gets colder throughout the day. Traveling in avalanche terrain is NOT recommended.
Our snowpack is a junk show! It's time to back off. Four weak layers are now buried in the snowpack.
1. November / December faceted snow near the ground.
2. Slopes that previously avalanched (repeaters).
3. Late January faceted snow.
4. Heads Up: Facet/crust combo on SE-facing slopes. The locator rose now includes low and mid-elevation southeast-facing slopes.
Avalanches can break on a variety of layers, and it's hard to determine which layer they will fail on. In any case, avalanches are large enough to bury, injure, or kill a person. The travel advice is simple: Traveling in avalanche terrain is NOT recommended. Cody Hughes had a great discussion on PWL, and I would encourage you to read his thoughts HERE.
Within the past 24 hours, we've picked up another 5-10 inches of new snow (0.50-1.09 inches of water). Since Friday, we've seen 20-45 inches of new snow (2.00-4.79 inches of water). Current mountain temperatures range from 18-28 °F. Across upper-elevation terrain, the wind is blowing from the northwest, averaging 10-15 mph with gusts close to 30 mph. The free air (11,000') is moving faster with speeds of 30-40 mph.
Today, the flow will continue to be from the west and northwest where we will see periods of snowfall throughout the day. This could bring an additional 2-7 inches of new snow by this evening. Temperatures will climb into the upper 20s °F.
Many more avalanches were reported yesterday. A few of them continue to be remotely triggered (from a distance). Be sure to read about them HERE. One avalanche that really caught my eye was the Circle Awl avalanche (photo below). This avalanche was remotely triggered from 200 feet away on a southeast-facing slope at 8,400'. It was 2 feet deep, 1,000 feet wide, and ran downhill 1,000 feet. This avalanche failed on a faceted crust combo (see pwl)
I was talking with Jonathan Morgan (Alta Avalanche Office) on the phone last night and we were trying to remember a year as complicated as this year with all the variability across the terrain. I mean, think about it. Normally, it's pretty simple and we have just one weak layer in the snowpack on a couple of aspects. Not this year. We have multiple weak layers all over the place on many different aspects and elevations. Oh, and don't forget the slopes that already avalanched. We have multiple avalanche problems outside of persistent weak layers, all with issues where they can break on various layers. I've been in the SLC office since 2015, and I can't remember a time that was this complicated. The last year I can think of where it was this bad was the winter of 2004/2005, when we had a really bad snowpack, and we saw eight fatalities that season. We've had four people tragically die already this year. Please do not try to outsmart the snowpack. Please keep it simple and avoid steep terrain.
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This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
