Avalanche forecast

West Slopes North

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 5 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Avalanche danger is generally LOW. Your largest concerns are upper elevation north, east and west slopes where a weak layer is buried around two feet deep, and could still fail with a human trigger. Expect variable crusty snow surfaces coating most areas on Friday. 

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    The potential to trigger an avalanche in the crust-facet layering from late January remains. The last reported human triggered avalanche on this layer was on February 5th, but four natural avalanches were observed in the last week on Shuksan, Table Mountain, Mt. Baker, and the White Chuck Glacier. Here is what we know: 

    • The layers are most prevalent on shady aspects above 5400 feet in elevation.  
    • There is around 2  feet of new snow above the weak layer.
    • Observed avalanche sizes are ~D2.
    • Snowpack tests produce inconsistent results, sometimes even in the same snowpit.
    • Many steep slopes where riders got out on with no results saw nearby slopes or another location on that slope avalanche on the weak layer. 

    Although the likelihood of triggering one of these avalanches is low, the consequences could be high if you are in a bad spot in the terrain. Remember, persistent slab avalanches can be triggered from low on the slope or remotely and factor in the consequences of triggering a large avalanche on the slope in question.

    (2/14/2022)

    Natural avalanche suspected of failing in January 30th crust-facet layers. East-northeast aspect at 6200' or Mt. Baker/Schriebers.Photo: Graham Clark

Avalanche Discussion

Much less snow fell than forecasted Wednesday night, and most surfaces are predominantly firm. If you find thin areas of low-density snow over a crust, consider investigating the layer, as we've found that faceting could be occurring in the layer in some areas. This would lend itself to a weak interface with incoming new snow, meaning avalanches could possibly be touchy. Let us know what you find by submitting an OBSERVATION. There’s also a small chance you could find shallow wind slabs at upper elevations along ridgelines. If you’re traveling in these areas pay attention to softer snow features and slablike qualities that may present.

A storm arrives Saturday, and avalanche danger will increase as the day progresses. Conditions will change quickly over the weekend, shifting us back to a winter mindset for the start of the week. Softer surfaces will be a welcome change in the coming days. 

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