Avalanche forecast

Gunnison

Crested Butte Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
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Highlights

Human-triggered avalanches (Axtel, Coney's) and natural avalanches (Ruby) continued on Thursday.  You will likely trigger a slab avalanche on slopes facing west through north through east, and some drifted southeast slopes.  You can trigger slides at a distance and from below steep terrain.  If you want to avoid an avalanche accident, choose low-angled terrain (less than 30 degrees without steep slopes above) to reduce your risk.  The snowpack is less problematic on sheltered, low-elevation southerly slopes; however, you will need to make a skillful slope-based assessment.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    Soft slabs averaging 1 to 2 feet thick in sheltered terrain and larger in wind-loaded terrain will be most sensitive to triggers where they formed over fragile facets, collapsible crusts, or surface hoar layers on west, north, and east aspects.  Slab behavior is becoming more challenging as slabs stiffen and thicken, with dozens of recent remote triggers and slabs propagating wider across terrain features.  Human-triggered avalanches continue to occur each day and point to a sensitive snowpack.  The obvious risk management strategy is to choose low-angled terrain without steep slopes above.

    This widely propagating avalanche (which spans the entire ridgeline) was triggered from a few hundred feet away on Thursday, 1/2.

    (1/2/2025) Photo: Eric Murrow

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Moderate westerly winds and strong gusts redistributed the 6 inches of snow from Wednesday night and Thursday.  Steer away from terrain features where you see evidence of drifting or feel stiffer surface snow.  The most suspect aspects are highlighted above, but you could encounter fresh drifts on more windward slopes or along open ridges at lower elevations.  Many aspects and elevations highlighted overlap with the Persistent Slab problem and are best avoided as an avalanche in the recently drifted snow could step down, creating a much larger, dangerous avalanche.

    An example of a slab avalanche that broke below a leeward ridgeline from last weekend.

Avalanche Discussion

It's hard to ignore the pile of evidence from the past week.  Human-triggered avalanches occurred every day for the past week.  This trend will likely continue into the weekend.  Most of the human avalanches have been remote triggers.  This means a person collapses the snowpack adjacent to or near steep terrain and releases an avalanche by simply being near avalanche terrain.  Consider this likely event while setting skin tracks or riding your snowmachine beneath suspect terrain.  You could trigger and be buried by an avalanche traveling across the flat terrain directly underneath an avalanche path.

Low-elevation, southernly-facing terrain in wind-sheltered areas has shown few signs of instability during this prolonged period of dangerous avalanche conditions. Still, you should ingest this information with a grain of salt.  A small human-triggered avalanche occurred on a south-facing, near treeline slope by Irwin on Thursday.  Forecasters found propagating test results in a snowpit on a wind-sheltered southeast-facing slope on Mount Axtel.  If you attempt to outsmart the current avalanche conditions by playing on steep sunny slopes out of the wind, you must make a skillful snowpack assessment on a slope-by-slope basis. Exceptions exist in the mountains.  

The simplest solution is often the best: travel on low-angled slopes, keep a safe distance from nearby avalanche terrain, and surf the fast, smooth pow.  Conditions feel ripe for an avalanche accident, and you wouldn't want to add to the three fatal accidents that have occurred recently in the western US.

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