Avalanche forecast

Olympics

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

The first real winter storm of 2025 brings with increasing avalanche hazard. Slabs may be more reactive than you expect due to variable weak snow and crust interfaces. Wind-drifted snow on lee slopes may catch you in the Hurricane Ridge area while slabs may be widespread on open slopes in portions of the range receiving 8" or more of snowfall.

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–1.5

    In the Hurricane Ridge area, we're expecting 4-5" of snow, which isn't enough for a true storm slab. Wind drifted pockets may be easy for humans to trigger on steep or poorly terrain features, particularly just below ridgelines. 

    In areas where 8" or more of snow falls such as the eastern Olympics, expect storm slabs to fail on any open slope steeper than 35 degrees.  If you see typical signs of instability such as whumphs, collapses, or propagating cracks, take the warning seriously on Friday as some pockets of surface hoar could still linger in sheltered areas.

    Example: Storm slab triggered on a steep rollover.

    Photo: Sam Siemens-Luthy

Avalanche Discussion

January’s unusually long dry period really changed the snowpack. Crusts and weak sugary facets top the surface in many areas. Now a series of storms will put these potential weak layers to the test. These storms won't wallop the Hurricane Ridge area, but we do expect that once cohesive slabs form, the reactivity could be surprising and highly variable from one slope to the next or as you make subtle adjustments, aspects, tree shading, or wind exposure. This is a good time to put aside the results of any one snowpack test and if you find enough snow for a slab, assume that you could trigger an avalanche on a sufficiently steep slope.

The new snow will fall on a stouter crust than last week on sun-exposed aspects. In areas where the snow comes in cold, that could result in a poor bond.

We have more uncertainty about how slabs will react to underlying weak snow on shaded aspects. You might find a thin skiff of snow or facets above a decomposing breakable crust sandwich. On Thursday, ONP rangers didn't observe surface hoar standing, but it was observed the 1/24. There remains 4" of faceting decomposing snow above a second crust. ONP rangers found that they could sometimes get failures on the underlying crust if they cut through the upper crust sandwich. Around 16" below the snow surface, you'll find the 12/29 interface. The snow depth on these aspects is around 50-55".

If snow falls and changes to rain at lower elevations, small wet loose activity could develop on steep slopes. Simply reduce your exposure to steep slopes if this transition occurs with more than 6" of fresh snow in your terrain.

Older glide cracks were opening up during warmer periods earlier in the month, but should fill in with fresh snowfall.

2024-2025 Forecast Schedule

NWAC will issue an avalanche forecast every Friday, Saturday, and Sunday and every holiday mid-week day the Hurricane Ridge Road is open from December until the end of March.  We will issue Avalanche Watches or Warnings when conditions warrant.  We will not update the non-holiday midweek discussion.  Our mountain weather forecasts will continue to cover the Olympics and are issued twice a day through the end of April.  If you have questions or feedback, please contact us at [email protected] and [email protected]. 

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