Avalanche forecast

Stevens Pass

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Thu
Alpine
4 · High
Treeline
4 · High
Below
3 · Considerable
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Highlights

As the afternoon progresses, warming temperatures, intense precipitation, and strong winds will lead to a widespread avalanche cycle. Large avalanches will be easy to trigger and run naturally. There is uncertainty about the timing of this warm-up, but make sure to plan your day to be off and out from under steep slopes as snowfall rates increase.

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Very Likely
    Size
    1.5–2

    The morning may feel like another cold, storm day, but the afternoon has dangerous conditions in store. Watch for increasing precipitation intensity and warming temperatures as your first indication that avalanche conditions are deteriorating. Heavy snow will form widespread storm slabs. As conditions worsen, move to lower angle terrain and avoid likely trigger points like steep convex rolls, gullies, or unsupported slopes. By the afternoon, you should avoid all avalanche terrain. Very large avalanches could run from upper elevations above, and it will be easy to trigger large avalanches on most steep slopes. 

    After two days of cold, dry snow, warming temperatures will layer heavy, wet snow over this old soft snow. This "upside-down" layering is a perfect recipe for avalanches. Add in the strong winds, and stability gets even worse. There is copious amounts of snow to drift around, making wind slabs larger, more dangerous, and likely easier to trigger than storm slabs. Avalanche size could be highly dependent on the storm's timing. If it arrives later in the afternoon, expect still widespread, but smaller avalanches. 

    (3/13/2025)

    Wind-loaded test slopes that produce cracks and mini avalanches are a red flag for unstable conditions. (4300ft) 

    Photo: Katie Warren

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–3

    We have limited information from upper elevations, but we expect this intense storm could reawaken this dangerous, persistent slab problem. Avalanches could run naturally and be large enough to destroy a house. They could run long distances into lower elevations and break widely across terrain features. Avoid traveling on or under steep open terrain at upper elevations. 

    This remains a high-consequence problem. The same loading that's creating widespread storm and wind slabs is also stressing older weak layers. The most suspect slopes are above 5,800ft where the snowpack has remained mostly dry and lacking new crusts. You can find layers of facets and buried surface hoar just above a couple of crusts about 1.5-2.5 feet (50-80cm) below the surface.  The only way to manage this problem is to avoid these suspect slopes. 

    (2/28/2026)

    Multiple widely breaking avalanches (up to D2.5) on the southeast aspect of the South Peak of Rock Mtn. SE-S, 5,800ft-6,600ft

    Photo: Josh Hirshberg

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–1.5

    As temperatures warm, rain is likely in the lower elevations. With plenty of fresh dry snow, this will quickly lead to wet loose avalanches. While there is lots of fresh snow, the terrain down at lower elevations is still very rough with lots of exposed creeks, trees, rocks, etc. So we expect wet avalanches to be small. But if they push you into those obstacles, it's likely to ruin your day. 

    (3/9/2026)

    A loose-dry avalanche triggered on Monday at Stevens Pass. You can see the grooves the sluffs cut out. This slide ran a long way in this steep gully. 

    Photo: Irene Henninger

Avalanche Discussion

After another night of cold snow, nature is turning up the temperature on Wednesday. There is 2-3ft of new snow, older weak layers, and plenty of crusts, creating many potential interfaces where avalanches may fail. We're not certain what time in the afternoon the slopes will fall apart, but we are confident it will happen at somepoint. This isn't a day to try to outsmart the weather's timing or the avalanche problems. Just stick to simple, sheltered terrain and make sure your travel plans allow for safe exits as avalanche conditions worsen. 

On Tuesday, NWAC avalanche forecasters found mostly fast-moving loose dry avalanches on sheltered north aspects and some isolated signs of cracking in wind-drifted snow.  Southern aspects held greater avalanche concerns. They heated up quickly with the sun, and two snowboarders were caught and carried in a storm slab that failed on a crust 2-2.5' deep. Wet loose avalanches on steep sunny slopes were also easy to trigger. These sunny slopes now have a crust, another potential sliding surface for the new snow. 

At upper elevations, we have limited information, but we suspect older weak layers are still active, and this ongoing storm is the first true test.  Just 10 days ago, a much smaller storm drove a cycle of widely breaking D2-2.5-sized avalanches. Natural and human-triggered avalanches occurred on leeward and sun-exposed slopes following a major westerly wind event. Given the ongoing loading, avalanches on these weak layers could become more likely as the week progresses. Wednesday's warm-up will be a big test for these older weak layers. 

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