Avalanche forecast

Central Cascades

Central Oregon Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Thu
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

A major winter storm should bring nice powder riding conditions, but will also bring a sharp increase in the avalanche danger.  As the snow piles up, avalanches will be possible throughout the terrain.  On slopes that the wind has blown snow onto, avalanches are likely and will be large enough to bury or injure a rider.  I'll be avoiding steep, wind-loaded slopes. 

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2.5

    Heavy snowfall accompanied by Moderate winds will build Wind Slabs on north and east slopes below ridgelines.  We often cite the statistic that Wind Slabs can be 3-5 times as deep as the snow that's fallen in sheltered meadows.  With over a foot of new snow in the forecast, Wind Slab avalanches could easily be large enough to bury or injure a rider.  If the current weather forecast materializes, Wednesday will be a good day to avoid any steep, unsupported slopes that could be wind loaded.

  • Loose Dry

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    As the snow piles up, avalanches will become increasingly possible below treeline.  Cooling temperatures like we have in the forecast tend to point more towards Dry Loose avalanches than Storm Slabs.  I don't want to completely rule out Storm Slab avalanches given the very heavy rates of snowfall in the forecast.  Once we have a foot or more of new snow on the ground, below treeline avalanches could be large enough to bury or injure a rider.  I'll be looking for small unsupported test slopes to evaluate how cohesive the surface snow.  These small test slopes are the best way to determine if we might have a Storm Slab avalanche problem.

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