Avalanche forecast

Moab

Utah Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

  • Alpine
  • Treeline
  • Below treeline
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Out of date — this forecast expired 5 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Rising mountain temperatures will increase the avalanche danger to MODERATE on slopes facing W–S–E. As the day warms, wet-loose avalanches will become possible. Monitor the snow surface closely—rollerballs, saturated snow, and unsupportable conditions are clear signs it’s time to head home.

In the alpine, hard slabs 2 to 4 feet thick rest over dry, faceted weak layers. On above-treeline slopes facing NW–N–E, a MODERATE danger exists for triggering a hard slab avalanche failing on a persistent weak layer. While triggering one is unlikely, the consequences are high—these avalanches could step down and involve the entire season’s snowpack. Watch for trigger points such as shallow, rocky areas, thin spots near slope margins or convexities, and very steep, rugged terrain.

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1

    The mountains got a shallow refreeze last night. Today is the first day in quite some time that "Wet Snow" has entered the forecast. For the time being, I think most activity will be limited to wet-loose. Travel advice today is typical for the springtime; look for signs of wet activity like roller balls, sloppy saturated snow, and punching through unsupportable slopes with your skis and boots. If you see these signs, the snow is getting too warm, and it's time to head home. You can work the compass today by starting on east aspects, moving to south, and then finally west.

    Trend: Increasing Danger. The danger for avalanches involving wet snow will increase with each day into the weekend. We have a historically shallow pack with poor structure. We expect a wet slab cycle in the coming days. By the end of the week and into the weekend, mountain travel will become dangerous, and desert activities will be the better option.

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    3

    Buried layers of weak, faceted snow continue to plague our snowpack near and above treeline on northerly facing slopes. Above treeline, thick, hard slabs 2-4 feet thick sit on top of these persistent weak layers. Although the likelihood for triggering a deep and dangerous avalanche has significantly decreased, all it takes is finding the right trigger point such as a shallow, rocky area or thin spot over a convexity.

    The upcoming heatwave will likely increase the sensitivity of these weak layers. Cold, dry facets can often "reawaken" during periods of extreme heat. Right now, the risks of entering steep northerly terrain outweigh the potential rewards.

Special Announcement

Geyser Pass Road Conditions: The road is melted down to dirt, expect wet and muddy conditions as the day heats up.

Grooming: Grooming is done for the season.

Spring Fundraiser: Each spring, we ask for your continued financial support to fund our forecasting and education programs. Our Spring Campaign and Spring Auction are now live and we hope you will consider supporting our mission.

Link: https://utahavalanchecenter.org/civicrm/contribute/transact?reset=1&id=4

Recent Activity

No recent avalanches have been observed. The avalanche database has been updated to include all observed avalanches from the last cycle. These are all great examples of the type of avalanche that are possible to trigger.

Snow and Weather

24 Hour Snow: 0" 72 Hour Snow: 0" Season Total Snow: 75" Depth at Gold Basin: 29"

Winds on Pre-Laurel Peak: NW 15-20 Temp: 31°F

Weather

Under clear skies, it is 31°F in Gold Basin this morning. For today, skies will be sunny, and temperatures will soar to 56°F at 10,000 feet. Winds from the northwest will ease up and blow just 5 to 10 MPH. Clear skies and record warmth continue into the weekend. High temperatures will reach the low 60s°F in the mountains by Saturday.

General Conditions

Overnight temperatures dipped just below freezing around 2 AM, and the mountains got a shallow refreeze. There will be a short window for corn skiing this morning. In my travels yesterday, I found fun spring conditions on west aspects near treeline and above. If you're heading for corn on the solars, you will need to pay close attention to how the snow reacts to the extremely warm temperatures. Wet-loose avalanches are possible today as slopes heat up. When the surface becomes saturated and punchy, it's time to head home. The danger for wet avalanches will increase each day this week. We anticipate several consecutive nights without a refreeze, and we may see a wet slab cycle soon. Today might be your last window for safe spring-like skiing for a while.

In the video below, I discuss the incoming heat wave and what it means for our snowpack.

In case you are wondering, this is officially the worst snowpack ever at 36% of normal. The black line is this season and just dropped below the historical minimum. We generally reach peak snowpack in mid April, this year it was late February. Uggh.

See all Moab observations here.

Snowpack and Weather Data

NEW! Gold Basin webcam storm stake

Gold Basin Storm Stake (10,000')

Gold Basin SNOTEL site (10,000')

SNOTEL site near Geyser Pass Winter Trailhead (9600')

Wind Station on Pre-Laurel Peak (11,400')

NWS forecast for the La Sal Mountains.

General Announcements

This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

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