Avalanche forecast

Northern New Mexico

Taos Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Recent snow has built storm slabs that continue to remain reactive, avoid steep slopes where you find signs of instability like shooting cracks on the surface.  Today will bring a return of the intense sun this time of year, and we may see a shedding event of natural loose snow avalanches on steep solar aspects.   

Persistent slab avalanches continue to remain possible as persistent weak layers in the middle and bottom of the snowpack continue to adjust to this latest significant loading event. An avalanche starting on the surface has the potential to step down into deeper weak layers creating a larger more destructive avalanche.   

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–3

    This latest storm has brought over 2 feet of snow and 2.65 inches of SWE that have built slabs and loaded slopes that will continue to stress persistent weak layers deeper down in the snowpack. Near and below treeline is where you're more likely to find and impact depth hoar and faceted weak layers near the ground.  At upper elevations, faceted crusts and small-grained facet layers between harder slabs linger 3 to 5 feet below the snow surface.  Obvious signs of instability like loud audible collapses and long propagating shooting cracks on the surface may or may not be present in travels until it's too late.  Avoid being on or connected to slopes steeper than 30 degrees as it's possible to trigger an avalanche from a distance away.  A smaller point release or storm slab avalanche could step down into these deeper weak layers creating a very large and most likely unsurvivable avalanche.  These persistent slab avalanches could run long distances well into the flats below. 

     

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    2 plus feet of snow has fallen in the mountains over the last couple of days and have built storm slabs at all elevations.   Winds have mainly remained light, but have been strong enough at upper elevations to drift snow into soft reactive slabs. These slabs have been forming on top of a variety of older surfaces prior to this storm from crusts to wind slabs and near-surface facets on northerly aspects. Storm slab avalanches may fail on the old existing surface or within density changes within the new snow.  Storm slab avalanches can be large on their own and able to break widely across a slope.  In steep terrain that is more wind-sheltered, you may encounter fast-moving loose snow sluffing that could be big enough to take you off your feet and bury you in a terrain trap. A smaller storm slab or loose snow avalanche has the potential to step down into deeper weak layers creating a larger more destructive avalanche. 

  • Loose Dry

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–1.5

    The sun will make a return today which will bring a threat of natural loose snow avalanches in steep terrain on solar aspects.  Although temperatures are expected to remain below freezing, the intense sun this year will quickly impact the snow surface helping it loose cohesion.  These types of avalanches typically start as point release in steep terrain around rock bands and fan out as it travels down the slope.  If you start to notice natural avalanches or the upper portions of the snowpack becoming wet or moist, think about heading to a shadier aspect. These avalanches will start off small but could grow in size as more snow gets entrained as it slides on the old crusts beneath the storm snow.    

Avalanche Discussion

Storm totals since Wednesday are  24 - 28" with 2.4 - 2.65  inches of SWE. The snow quality has remained really good for this time of year, as cold temperatures, cloudy skies and light winds have helped preserve the cold snow.  Today will bring the first sunny day we've seen in a little while, and although temperatures are expected to remain below freezing, the intense sun this time of year will bring a threat of loose snow avalanches on solar aspects.  Enjoy the sun and light wind today as we will be returning to a more active weather pattern. A series of storms from another atmospheric river event is expected to push into our area Monday into Thursday where we could pick up well over a foot of snow.  This storm looks to be another warm system, with wet heavy snow and strong winds.  

The last couple of days have felt a bit like being in interior B.C. with dribs and drabs of low-density snow, light winds and no sun.  Skiing and riding conditions are fantastic for this time of year. Yesterday, storm slabs continued to be reactive, especially at upper elevations, where avalanches were breaking within the storm snow on density changes or full thickness ( 2 - 3') on the old existing bed surface. Cornices have grown to be quite large, so be aware if you're traveling on a ridgeline that these cornices can break back further than you might expect. With temperatures warming and sun today, be aware of traveling on slopes beneath overhanging cornices, that could break off naturally.  

The persistent weak layers near the ground that has plagued us much of the season have faced another significant test from the 2.5" of snow water equivalent.  These layers will need more time to adjust to this latest round of loading.  Near and below treeline terrain is where depth hoar near the ground continues to linger in a relatively shallow snowpack (< 1.5 m) prior to this latest storm.  Obvious signs of instability like loud audible collapses may or may not be present in travels and give you a false sense of security. At upper elevations, there's still a threat of triggering an avalanche near the ground, but most slopes have a deeper snowpack where impacting these layers would be more difficult. In the middle of the snowpack, small-grained facets sandwiched between harder slabs and faceted crusts have been observed but are not widespread.  Most of these layers have been found on north and easterly aspects near and above treeline.  The snowpack will not get much of a break as another round of significant snow is expected Monday night through Thursday.

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