Avalanche forecast

San Francisco Peaks / Kachina Peaks Wilderness

Kachina Peaks Avalanche Center
View on map

Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
Open full map
Out of date — this forecast expired 3 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Winds have shifted to the southwest today and will continue to load the leeward side of rocks, ridgelines and the tops of chutes and gullies.  Small to large human triggered wind slab avalanches are possible above and near treeline.  Backcountry travelers should avoid areas loaded by wind distributed snow.  Steer clear of hollow sounding blown-in areas and be alert for signs of instability such as cracking and shearing.  

Support KPAC and our Mikee Linville Avalanche Education Scholarship and win a 2023-2024 Power Pass! Power Pass Raffle

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Yesterday, high west and southwest winds continued to pummel the upper elevations of the San Francisco Peaks.  Overnight wind speeds decreased and settled-in at near ideal velocities for snow transport, with gusts ranging from 25-30 mph.  Today, this less vicious southwest wind will load layers of snow over recently developed wind slab, and onto other previously wind loaded slopes.  This newer transported snow, being deposited with slightly slower speeds, will be more sensitive to triggering.  Given that yesterday's forecasted amounts of new snow did not materialize, and that there are limited amounts of snow available for transport, these new slabs will be likely be small, with 2-12" crowns.  However, do not dismiss this hazard as it is possible for a skier or rider to trigger a wind slab avalanche capable of carrying a person over rocks, cliffs and other terrain hazards.

    Learn to identify these wind loaded slopes by looking for active loading, previuosly developed wind slab, wind pockets, wind berms and wind loaded starting zones.  Avoiding these areas can require complex strategies, especially when approached from the top down.  

Avalanche Discussion

Dry weather and sun are returning to the San Francisco Peaks, but gusts will continue to build wind slab at upper elevations in isolated locations.  This improved weather and slightly decreased wind will make for better touring conditions, but wind loaded slopes should be avoided.  While much of the upper mountain is stripped, areas in the inner basin and specific terrain features such as ridgelines and on the leeward side of rocks, have been loaded with transported snow.  Wind speeds and direction are expected to be in the 11-17 mph range with gusts as high as 30 mph out of the southwest.  In some locations facets have returned to the lower layers of the snowpack.  Be aware for the unlikely but detrimental situation of wind loaded starting zones with facets below.  Information on the aspect and elevation of this problem is limited, so heavily loaded slopes should be viewed skeptically.  The only way to identify this problem is to dig and if doing so identify safe locations to do so. 

During the last storm rain occurred as high as 9,500 feet.  Much of the upper layers of backcountry snow have softened making for improved travel at below treeline elevations.  At even lower elevations, between 7,000 and 9,000 feet the snowpack is vanishing from previously skiable terrain.  The ground is now showing on some south facing and low angle slopes.  The danger level is low in these areas, but be aware for rapid warming today and tomorrow and the subsequent weakening of the snowpack.  It is unlikely this will lead to any significant avalanche events as the snowpack at these lower elevations is quite uniform in most locations, however some exceptions may exist, such as on Mt. Elden or Kendrick Peak.

Regions covered