Avalanche forecast

San Francisco Peaks / Kachina Peaks Wilderness

Kachina Peaks Avalanche Center
View on map

Avalanche danger

Fri
Alpine
4 · High
Treeline
4 · High
Below
2 · Moderate
Open full map
Out of date — this forecast expired 3 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

A skier or rider is very likely to trigger a small to large avalanche today as slopes are expected to receive additional loading.  Backcountry travel near and above treeline is not recommended.   Avoid areas being additionally loaded by wind, such as cross-loaded gullies and starting zones.

As this storm continues, expect the possibility of a natural avalanche cycle with large and maybe very large avalanches.  

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Very Likely
    Size
    1–2.5

    Existing weak layers are likely to become active as this storm continues to load the snowpack.  Two primary persistent weak layers are of concern: one at the bottom of the snowpack and another at what was once the mid-level layer.  In areas where these are sufficiently loaded, human-triggered avalanches are very likely and natural avalanches are likely. Today, avoid steep terrain near and above treeline.  

    After a bit of a lull yesterday, today's snowpack is expected to receive another 12-18" of new snow as a second pulse enters the region.  In just 48 hours, 37" of snow has been recorded at 10,800,' and 24" of snow and 3.8" of SWE were recorded at the Snowslide Canyon site.  Where this snow has been distributed across starting zones, large to very large avalanches are possible. These can completely bury a skier or rider and release without warning. 

    (2/4/2024)

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Winds were less active yesterday but picked up overnight and are expected to increase today.  Southwest winds should be in the moderate range, with gusts as high as 50-60 mph on upper ridgelines.  Wind slabs may become active in some locations near and above treeline.  These wind slabs could step-down and release persistent slab avalanches buried deeper in the snowpack.  Avoid wind drifts and large areas of mounded and pillowed snow.

    At below treeline elevations it is possible that some small wind slabs will continue to load throughout the day.  These will be small but could partially bury a skier or rider.  Watch for steep open areas and terrain features with loaded snow.  If cracking or shearing is observed, note that this is an obvious sign that wind slabs are sensitive and could release.

Avalanche Discussion

The Winter Storm Warning has been extended once again, this time into Thursday evening.  Heavy snowfall is expected throughout the day.  During this storm cycle, the Snowslide Canyon site has received 3.8" of SWE, and the Arizona Snowbowl is reporting a total of 37" at 10,800'.   Due to limited visibility, avalanches are difficult to see, but with more rapid loading expected today, we could be in the midst of our first natural avalanche cycle of the season.

Two primary persistent weak layers are the focus of concern and these will be the likely failure points during and just after the storm.  The first and most prominent of these layers is a set of basal facets and depth hoar buried at the bottom of the snowpack. This layer has been found most commonly on North, East, and West aspects above and near treeline.  Its presence seems widespread except in some south facing areas where snow has melted off between storms and other high terrain aspects where snow has been significantly stripped by wind.  The second and more variable is a set of persistent weak layers, facets, and near-surface facets located above and below various melt-free crusts.  The continuity of these layers has been harder to assess, but if present continuously in the snowpack, these layers could also result in large avalanches.

Winds have been variable and intermittent during different phases of the storm.  It's likely that on Tuesday some areas were stripped and others were loaded, and a similar situation could happen today.  In areas that become significantly loaded by wind, the basal facets may fail, making for large to very large avalanches with 3'-6' crowns.  Wind loading will also stress other persistent weak layers in the snowpack.

Wind slabs are expected to build again today.  Use appropriate spacing when traveling and avoid wind drifted locations.  Retreat or find a different route if cracking or shearing is observed.  

Cold temperatures and severe wind chills are expected today, and visibility will again be limited by heavy snow, blowing snow, and clouds.  Take these conditions into account in any tour planning.  Travel above treeline is not recommended due to high avalanche danger.

Note that the snowpack depth and layers were quite variable pre-storm.   For those seeking more information, please view the observations page.  https://kachinapeaks.org/Observations/#/view/observations.   You can also check out the snowpits published this week at snowpilot.org.

Regions covered