Avalanche forecast

Stevens Pass

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Fri
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

Cooler overnight temperatures should firm surfaces a bit before softening by the afternoon. You might still be able to trigger wet avalanches in steep areas with soft, loose snow later on in the day. There’s a slim chance that a cornice fall, a small avalanche, or possibly a human, could trigger an avalanche a few feet deep failing on a persistent weak layer we’ve found on upper elevation northerly aspects.

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    The majority of wet loose avalanches occurred Monday afternoon and Tuesday as wetting initially occurred on previously dry snow. Wednesday I traveled in the Stevens Pass Zone with forecaster Josh Hirshberg, and we mainly triggered a bunch of rollerballs when we pushed snow with our skis. Wednesday night temperatures will cool, and we may see a slight surface freeze. We’re quickly reminded that it’s spring by a rapid rebound to 6000ft freezing levels by the afternoon. All aspects will likely soften again. 

    Rollerballs and an occasional wet loose avalanche triggered by a human in the top foot of snow will probably remain the case Thursday. Expect more reactivity in shallow snow or steeper locations at mid to upper elevations, where previously dry snow existed. Make sure to stay alert if you enter a steep slope, paying attention to how much snow is moving around you. If a large amount is running, don’t continue making your way down the slope and consider transitioning off the steep slope to lower angle terrain.

    (3/23/2022) Numerous wet loose avalanches occurred in the west fork above Lake Susan Jane on March 21st. NE-N, 4800-5,600ft. Photo: Josh Hirshberg

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2

    Above 5,500ft on NW-NE aspects we’ve found weak, faceted grains over a crust from early March. Josh and I wanted to investigate it Wednesday, so we dug at 5500ft on a north slope and the suspect layer was moist, and the weak grains were just barely identifiable. We got some test results at the layer, although none were alarming. If we gained a little more elevation we suspect the results may have been more notable.  This layer is buried 2-3 feet deep, and avalanches that fail on it would be large. With an added trigger, there’s a possibility an avalanche could occur on this weak layer. 

    This isn’t really a “manageable” avalanche problem that can be figured out. You are either in the terrain where one of these large, unsurvivable avalanches could occur, or you are not. If you choose to travel in these areas you are simply accepting a slightly higher risk of triggering or being exposed to a very large avalanche.

    We dug to find the weak layer on Wednesday. Here, it was moist rounding facets 40cm down. Photo: Irene Henninger

Avalanche Discussion

If skies completely clear overnight, we may see a freeze up to a few inches deep. There’s a good chance we’ll have some clouds and not as solid a freeze. Any amount of cooling and freeze on the snowpack is a plus, and the more the better at helping the snowpack transition to spring conditions. Pay attention as snow softness changes throughout the day. The amount of freeze dictates how quickly the snow will soften and the likelihood of wet snow avalanches on Thursday. Whether the snow freezes or not, travel conditions are challenging right now, and even with a crust there’s a good chance your feet will punch through to softer snow beneath. Most surfaces are variable and bumpy, so prepare for difficult travel on your outing Thursday.

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