Avalanche forecast

West Slopes Central

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Thu
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

Increasing winds and light snowfall will bring a shift back to winter-like conditions after a week of warm temperatures and rain. Identify and evaluate slabs of new and wind drifted snow as you gain elevation. Shy away from areas of active wind loading. Very large avalanches on northerly slopes above treeline remain a concern. 

Avalanche problems

  • Deep Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    3

    A layer of faceted snow 4-8' deep is likely behind very large avalanches that occurred the past two weeks. Though there is a better chance you will see small slab or loose snow avalanches on Wednesday, the rare deep slab avalanche will be much more dangerous if you happen to be in the way.  It’s quite unlikely a single person could trigger one of these avalanches but they could still be provoked by a big load like cornice fall, slab, or loose snow avalanche from above. Overall the danger from these is diminishing as colder temperatures make for less cornice fall and other natural activity. That being said it’s still a good idea to not linger on big, northerly alpine slopes below cornices or other hazards.

    (3/27/2022)

    Very large (D3) deep slab avalanche below Hidden Lake Lookout in North Cascades National Park. Likely triggered by a chunk of cornice falling from above. Northeast aspect at 6700'.

    Photo: John Scurlock

Avalanche Discussion

Forecasted snowfall and wind speeds are at the threshold for seeing avalanches in dry snow layers. Some above treeline areas have dry snow available for transport in addition to a few inches of new snow. If you make it to the alpine you will likely see fresh winds slabs - the question is are deep, wide, and reactive enough to create an actual hazard. Assume higher danger (i.e Moderate) near treeline if you find more new or wind transported snow than anticipated.

Observers on the Easton Glacier of Mt. Baker and other areas of West North reported very firm conditions in the morning with gradual softening through the day. On Baker, dry snow conditions were found above 8000' in the morning. By the afternoon sun softened snow was found just below the summit. Human triggered wet loose avalanches were common in the afternoon but none reported were larger than D1. Wet loose avalanche activity was also noted around Stevens Pass with a size D2 natural reported from Rock Mountain.

Wednesday will start a transition to a slightly cooler, wetter weather pattern that will last into next week. Though wet avalanche activity should mostly end, be aware that the spring shedding cycle of cornices, glide avalanches and the like will kick in with a return to warm temperatures and/or strong solar radiation. Very small loose wet avalanches or other signs of instability in any new snow could also be seen with afternoon sun breaks.

Regions covered