Avalanche forecast

Togwotee Pass

Bridger-Teton Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
No rating
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Highlights

The avalanche danger will start at MODERATE and rise to CONSIDERABLE with warm temperatures and sunshine. Triggering a large wet avalanche on steep sunny slopes could become likely as temperatures warm. It is unlikely that you will trigger an avalanche on steep northerly slopes but weak snow remains buried near the ground. Be conservative on and underneath steep sunny slopes and watch for wet slushy snow.

Avalanche problems

  • Wet Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Wet avalanche activity could become likely today as temperatures warm. This includes both wet loose and wet slab avalanches or a combination of both. Triggering an avalanche is most likely on steep sunny slopes near rocky outcrops. Wet loose slides could quickly fan out to entrain large amounts of snow or transition to a slab avalanche. Overnight temperatures barely dipped to freezing which means that any crust you feel this morning is probably thin, with wet snow just beneath. As soon as the sun hits it, that thin crust will start to thaw and increase the amount of water seeping through the snowpack. Several days of warm sunny weather without a hard freeze combined with flowing water in the snowpack is a recipe for large wet avalanches. Start your day early and be off of and out from underneath steep sunny slopes early. 

    Cornices continue to be active with this warm weather. An observation from Brooks yesterday supports the increased hazard. Minimize the amount of time spent under slopes with looming cornices. Large falling chunks of cornice can be difficult to avoid in confined terrain and can act as very large triggers impacting deep weak layers. If you are on a ridge, remember that cornices break much further back than you might think. 

     

    (3/20/2024)

    Wet avalanche debris can often run further than expected. 

    Photo: Cameron Galt

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    Triggering a persistent slab avalanche on weak snow buried 2-4 feet deep is unlikely but not out of the question. See the attached picture of the cornice-triggered avalanche in the Tetons for evidence. As temperatures increase through the day, weak snow buried in the snowpack may become more sensitive to triggers. The most probable areas to trigger a persistent slab avalanche includesteep, rocky, and wind-affected slopes on the north half of the compass. These areas contain thin, shallow spots where riders can easily impact weak layers. Shallower snow is also found east of the continental divide and south towards the Gros Ventre Range. Previous tracks on a slope are not an indicator of stability. Use caution in steep terrain and give yourself a wide margin of error on slopes with high consequences or near terrain traps. Move to low-angle terrain to avoid this problem. 

    The last known persistent slab avalanche occurred on 3/16 in Upper Deception Creek. On 3/19, a wet slab avalanche failing on these persistent weak layers occurred on Breccia. More avalanches such as these are possible during spring warm-ups and may span the border between a wet slab and a persistent slab problem. However, both will be equally destructive avalanche types.

    (4/10/2024) Photo: Dan Hays

    This avalanche crown looks about 200m wide, 2-3m thick and took most of the season snowpack with it. It occurred 4/10 on the Wedge at around 10,000',  SSE of Grand Targhee.

Avalanche Discussion

Conservative decisions around steep terrain are warranted today. When the sun comes out, things could change very quickly. Warm temperatures and very light overnight freezes the last few days have increased the avalanche hazard. Avoid wet slushy snow as you travel and avoid lingering underneath steep sunny slopes. Being out of avalanche terrain early is a good idea.  Looks like it'll be a great afternoon for fishing, rock climbing or watching to see if Scheffler can pull off another green jacket in the final round at Augusta.

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