Avalanche forecast

Continental

Valdez Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Today you will find areas of Moderate avalanche Hazard at all elevations. Fresh wind slabs currently forming will create pockets of unstable snow in mid to upper elevations. Small human-triggered avalanches will be possible. Lower elevation South facing slopes may produce small wet loose activity as temperatures warm.  

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    After a calm couple of days, NE wind returned to Thompson Pass last night. Winds from 30-50 mph have been redistributing the 5-10 cm of snow that fell several days ago. Expect to find thin, soft windslabs on the lee sides of terrain features. In areas where windblown snow is deing deposited, it will be possible to trigger a small D1-D1.5 avalanche.  

     Thick knife-hard windslabs that formed 2/27 - 3/2 have been observed to be unreactive throughout our forecast area. Old windslabs are extremely stiff and do not react to humans or machines traveling across them. Avalanches involving these old hard slabs are unlikely. 

     

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    Rising temperatures. longer days and stronger sun intensity will increase the chance of wet loose activity on lower elevation South facing slopes. Warmer weather over the last few days has not initiated a wet loose avalanche cycle. Still, this problem should be on your radar if traveling on warm South-facing slopes in lower elevations. Steep South facing rocky slopes will be the first to show signs of activity. Moist snow and roller balls from steep terrain are signs that the wet loose hazard is increasing. Avalanche danger on low-elevation South aspects will start low and increase to moderate if the snow becomes moist. 

Avalanche Discussion

We are in a period of calm after the late February windstorm that caused widespread damage to the snowpack throughout our forecast area.  The aftermath has left us with a variety of scoured surfaces and knife-hard wind slabs. Several large  D2-D3 avalanches failed naturally during the windstorm and were triggered by intense wind loading. Windslabs created during this period have had almost a week to bond and stabilize and have been found to be unreactive. 

The undesirable rock-hard wind-affected snow has created a strong "bridge" over any persistent slab issues that may have been present. In several areas wind slabs 2 feet thick or more were barely penetrable by shovel. Humans or machines are very unlikely to affect deeper layers where thick hard slabs are bridging the snowpack. However, a large cornice fall, rock fall, or intense snow load may be able to trigger stubborn deeper layers.  

The general trend of our snowpack is headed toward increased stability. Observations from many locations over the last several days have produced few signs of instability.  Small amounts of new snow from earlier this week will be redistributed by wind today creating the possibility of small human-triggered slab avalanches. 

On 3/7 widespread surface hoar  was observed from Thompson Pass and to the North from road level to above 3500ft. This may become a layer of concern in areas where it isn't destroyed by the wind before the next snowfall.

Glide cracks exist in isolated areas and will be a hazard throughout the season until they fail.  Avoid exposure to glide cracks.

 

 

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