Avalanche forecast

Olympics

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
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Highlights

Dial forward the clocks, but dial back your terrain selection on Sunday. You can trigger a large avalanche on any open slopes steeper than 35 degrees. Natural avalanches are possible on wind-loaded upper-elevation slopes, particularly in the southern parts of the range.

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2

    We're expecting 18" of storm snow from Saturday morning through the day on Sunday at Hurricane Ridge. Parts of the southern Olympics are looking at 2-3.5 ft. Avalanches will be large and difficult to escape. If there happens to be a preserved weak snow interface, these avalanches could break widely across terrain features. Manage the risk of these large avalanches by sticking to supported slopes less than 35 degrees.  Sustained moderate to strong and generally SSW winds continue to load many start zones and natural avalanches may be possible. Give any potentially wind-loaded start zone some respect, by avoiding the long runout on the slopes below.

    Keep in mind that cornices may be growing large and may be sensitive. They can break farther back than you expect or may get overburdened, triggering a natural avalanche on the slope below. If you find yourself in a drier part of the range with less than 8" of snow on the 3/8 interface, then treat the day as a wind slab problem, steering around wind-loaded slopes steeper than 35 degrees.

     

    Example: A storm slab propagating widely on a potentially weak new/old snow interface.

    Photo: Sam Siemens-Luthy - NPS Ranger

Avalanche Discussion

NWAC is devastated to report the death of one of our Avalanche Forecasters, Matt Primomo. Tragically, Matt passed away in a non-avalanche accident away from work on Thursday, March 7th. Matt has been a key member of the NWAC family since 2017. His life in the mountains touched so many people. We are absolutely heartbroken. Please join us as we mourn this immense loss with Matt’s family, friends, and community.

Discussion:

Sunday will be a stormy day in the mountains with winter-like temperatures, blowing and drifting snow, and significant accumulations. 

Strong winds and extreme gusts likely formed thick drifts as they transported around 6" of fresh snowfall that fell during the day on Saturday on a cooling trend. In parts of the Olympics, snowfall amounts may well be higher. With Hurricane Ridge closed due to weather on Saturday, we're going into Sunday with a bit of added uncertainty. And as our uncertainty goes up, we can manage that by choosing simpler, lower-angle, and less consequential terrain. It's worth noting that in the Mt Baker area, observers found some buried surface hoar around 5000 ft. While this may or may not be present in the Olympics, it's better to be conservative given the 1-3.5 ft that you might find on top of the 3/8 interface by the end of the day on Sunday. 

Thursday and Friday saw freezing levels rise above 5500 ft each afternoon with sunshine likely forming a crust that underlies the storm snow on most W-S-E aspects. These milder days marked a significant departure marked a departure from an extended cool stretch that began February 24th.

Friday morning, NPS Rangers observed rollerballs and small wet loose avalanches along road cuts below 5000' as temperatures warmed.  Higher up, blowing snow initially limited visibility but by mid-day, temperatures had warmed above freezing at Hurricane Ridge. NWAC observers and NPS staff found beautiful weather and a generally stable snowpack in the Hurricane Ridge area Thursday.  Small wet loose avalanches and pinwheels could easily be found on steep sunny slopes. It was important to look up as huge tree bombs occasionally released as temperatures warmed.  4-6" of recent snow from early in the week was well settled with minimal wind effect along ridgelines. 

As the story has been for much of this winter, be aware of low snow depths and travel hazards at lower elevations and on steep sunny slopes that were bare or had little snow 2 weeks ago. 

2023-2024 Forecast Schedule

NWAC will issue an avalanche forecast every Friday, Saturday, and Sunday and every holiday mid-week day the Hurricane Ridge Road is open from December to early April.  We will issue Avalanche Watches or Warnings when conditions warrant.  We will not update the non-holiday midweek discussion.  Our mountain weather forecasts will continue to cover the Olympics and are issued twice a day through the end of April.  If you have questions or feedback, please contact us at [email protected] and [email protected]. 

If you're out in the snow, share your observations with us and your local backcountry community.

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