Avalanche forecast

Stevens Pass

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Fri
Alpine
4 · High
Treeline
4 · High
Below
3 · Considerable
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Highlights

Dense new snow and gradually warming temperatures are expected to create very dangerous avalanche conditions. Thursday isn't the day to go into avalanche terrain, especially higher on the mountain. Avalanches could be large, very easy to initiate, and could run naturally.

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Very Likely
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    Around 7-10" of dense, heavy snow may fall in avalanche start zones by the end of the day Thursday. This, accompanied by a gradual warming trend is likely to create 'upside down' storm snow. Storm slabs could fail naturally and remain easy to trigger well into the day. Slabs may just be the depth of the new snow, but there are a number of slightly deeper layers that could make for larger and more destructive avalanches if they step down. Large, upper elevation starting zones may run naturally on Thursday. 

    Snow may change over to rain, especially at lower elevations during the daytime. If this happens then expect a cycle of wet loose avalanches to occur. These could be large from large steep slopes.

    Your best bet is to stay safe is to avoid avalanche terrain. Stay well away from steeper slopes, and stay off of slopes steeper than 30 degrees. Signs of instability you could come across are natural avalanches, fresh debris piles, and shooting cracks.

    Storm slabs like this may be easily triggered on Thursday

Avalanche Discussion

A big change is headed our way, but theres uncertainty if, and when, the snow may change over to rain on Thursday. In any case, expect rapidly increasing danger first thing on Thursday as the storm arrives and gradually warms. On Wednesday, I found a number of potential failure layers for this next storm while skiing on the periphery of Stevens Pass Mtn Resort. The powder skiing was generally quite good, and low-medium density snow rests on the surface.

Since around January 4th, theres been about 12" of accumulated snow at mid and upper elevations. Just to the east, recent storms have amounted to higher snow totals near Leavenworth and Wenatchee. Many widely propagating ski triggered avalanches have occurred, with a layer of buried surface hoar being the culprit. This layer could be problematic in the eastern edge of the Stevens Pass zone.

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