Avalanche forecast

Northern New Mexico

Taos Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Cohesive slabs rest on top of very weak facets deeper down in the snowpack.  You can trigger a large and dangerous persistent slab avalanche that breaks on or near the ground.  Strong winds and a little bit of new snow will continue to load slopes and thicken wind slabs at upper elevations. Even a smaller wind slab avalanche has the potential to step down into deeper weak layers.   Pay attention to obvious signs of instability like shooting cracks and loud audible collapses as these are indications that you've found this poor snowpack structure of strong over weak.  It's possible to trigger an avalanche from a distance away.  Sticking to terrain 30 degrees or less without steep slopes above you will provide safer skiing and riding options. 

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2.5

    A widespread layer of facets and depth hoar make up the bottom of the snowpack across most slopes.  Cohesive slabs from recent snow and wind rest on top of these persistent weak layers creating a persistent slab avalanche problem at all elevations.  You can trigger a large and dangerous avalanche that's big enough to bury you, and it's possible to trigger a slope from a distance away. Don't be lured into thinking the absence of shooting cracks and audible collapses means the slope is safe. Assume all slopes are suspect until proven otherwise.  Taking the time to dig a quick pit is a great way to assess if strong over weak layering is present on the slope you plan to play on.  

    A very large natural avalanche on N aspect, most likely ran on 1/2 during the storm.  Slopes are well connected right now and able to break widely across slopes.  More snow and continued strong winds will continue to load slopes. 

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Moderate to strong westerly winds over the last several days have been drifting snow into stiff cohesive slabs on the leeward sides of ridgelines and cross-loaded terrain features at upper elevations. A little bit of new snow and strong SW/W winds will continue to drift snow at upper elevations into stiffening and thickening wind slabs.  Watch for obvious wind-drifted pillows and stiff smooth hollow sounding slabs on the surface.  Although you can trigger a wind slab that starts on the surface, expect it to step down into deeper weak layers creating a larger more destructive avalanche.   

     

Avalanche Discussion

A weak weather system approaches northern NM today bringing light snowfall and strong SW winds over the mountains. 1 to 3 inches is expected today which will continue to add to the snow totals we've seen over the last week.  Since December 28th we've picked up 15 to 20 inches of snow with about 1.7" of SWE.  Over this time period, we haven't seen much of a break from the moderate to strong westerly winds that have drifted snow and loaded slopes into deeper stiffer slabs. 

We currently have a dangerous set-up of very weak faceted sugary like snow near the ground that was widespread prior to these holiday storms over the last week. These faceted persistent weak layers formed in our shallow snowpack during the prolonged periods of dry and cold weather we had earlier in the season. We've now introduced a dense cohesive slab on top that is more uniform and better connected across slopes enabling avalanches to break wider across terrain features.  Although not much snow is forecasted today, even a couple of inches with strong winds can add stress to these weak faceted layers below.   

If you've gotten out in the last several days, it shouldn't be a secret that dangerous avalanche conditions exist.  Natural avalanche activity, remotely triggering avalanches from long distances away, loud thunderous collapses, and propagating shooting cracks  100's of feet wide have been more of the norm than not. Most of these avalanches have failed on facets or depth hoar or near the ground with crowns that were 2 to 3 feet and taking with it most of the season's snowpack.  

It's been a relatively slow start to the season here in northern NM, and it's easy to want to get out and chase powder.  However, with a snowpack structure like we have, it's going to take time before we start to see it heal and gain strength. Unfortunately, this process doesn't happen instantly or quickly.  With a still relatively shallow snowpack, no big storms on the horizon, and cold temperatures this time of year, it may be some time before we start to see these faceted persistent weak layers gaining strength.  So stay patient and continue to practice good travel techniques, with a conservative mindset.      

 

We will be going to Friday/Saturday/Sunday for daily forecasts with danger ratings and General Avalanche Information Products Monday - Thursday.

 

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