Avalanche forecast

Mount Shasta

Mount Shasta Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Thu
Alpine
1 · Low
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 4 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Stable weather over the last 24 hours has allowed the snowpack time to adjust. Although wind slabs remain stubborn and chances of triggering one are low, evidence suggests large pockets may still lurk on steep W-S-E facing slopes above treeline. Identifying clues above a slope, such as large cornices or scoured ridgelines, infer previous wind loading.  Apply extra caution next to rock outcroppings on slopes where the snowpack is thinnest.      

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2.5

    Given the past weather history and the recent avalanche observations, a low-risk, high-consequence scenario is at hand. Triggering a wind slab avalanche in upper elevations would be extremely difficult and very unlikely. However, if achieved, the results would be unsurvivable. Primary triggers include snow machines, cornice fall, or multiple people on a given slope.  Given the stable weather and fair temperatures, we suspect this problem will heal itself, if it hasn't already done so.  Some uncertainty remains, given the Cascade Gulch avalanche on 01.23.2023 and lack of high elevation observations.     

    (1/24/2023)

    Green Butte and the upper mountain 

Avalanche Discussion

Yesterday (01.24.2023), the snow blower arrived at Bunny Flat doing what it does best, chomping snow! The Everitt memorial highway and Castle lake road remain closed, with efforts to re-open ASAP. 

Uncertainties and thoughts regarding the forecast:

  • Wind that occurred over January 22nd was extreme.
  • From our experience, wind speeds that extreme typically sublimate the snow off the mountain and/or snow will collect in low angle terrain near treeline
  • The resulting large, Cascade Gulch (CG) avalanche was definitely a surprise
  • Limited data and observations have been hard to acquire on the upper mountain
  • Collective local chats have not observed that path slide in over 20 years
  •  We think the CG avalanche is an outlier, but none-the-less, it raised our eyebrows

Always feel free to drop us an observation on what you saw or experienced.  A sentence or two helps a ton!

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