Avalanche forecast

Gunnison

Crested Butte Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
1 · Low
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
Out of date — this forecast expired last year. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

A weak overnight freeze may shorten the window for good travel.  Ideal timing comes when crusts are just softening yet remain supportive underfoot.  If you encounter a wet and punchy snowpack, you have found a location where you could trigger a loose avalanche.  Start and end your day early to reduce your risk of wet avalanches and the unlikely threat of cornice falls, which can occur due to the warm weather.  There is a slight chance for you to encounter a small, dry slab problem above treeline on north-facing slopes from previous winds.  Stay alert for these stiff-feeling drifts if you travel in extreme terrain where a small avalanche could have serious consequences.

Avalanche Discussion

The avalanche danger is at LOW, but expect a small uptick in the hazard due to a weaker overnight refreeze.  Many weather stations near and below treeline did not drop below the freezing mark.  The weaker refreeze and rising high temperatures increase the risk of wet avalanche activity.

Wet Loose avalanches are the most probable issue you will encounter.  Thanks to multiple warm periods over the past month, the snowpack has become tolerant of spring temperatures, and loose avalanche activity is expected to remain small.  Check out this recent observation, highlighting a few recent loose avalanches.  Most of the recent natural activity occurred on northerly slopes above 11,000 feet, where dry snow from last weekend shed as it became wet.  Monitor the snow surface during your travels, and if you encounter a punchy snowpack that's unsupportive or find a few inches of wet snow on northerly aspects, you could trigger a loose avalanche.  

Two unlikely, but not impossible, hazards come from cornice fall and Wet Slabs.  Sunshine and warm temperatures will weaken cornices during the heat of the day, possibly causing a rogue cornice fall.  A trundling cornice is problematic on its own, but these could release a slab avalanche like this one on Mount Baldy from last week.  Minimize your time below, and give a wide berth while crossing above cornices to reduce your risk.  Although Wet Slab avalanches are unlikely, meltwater is draining through the snowpack on northerly-facing slopes at mid- to upper elevations.  This process keeps the unlikely threat alive.  This observation from Washington Gulch highlights the significant amount of meltwater moving through the snowpack on northerly slopes near treeline.  Last night's mediocre refreeze may allow meltwater volumes to increase on Saturday.  You can reduce your risk by minimizing travel on or below northerly slopes during the heat of the day.  

Lastly, you could encounter shallow, dry slabs that formed during last week's storm and wind.  This small problem exists at the highest elevations on northerly slopes well above treeline.  Look for stiff pockets of snow in leeward locations and steer around them to reduce your risk.  These avalanches would be small, but could pose a threat in extreme terrain.

The final forecast of the season is scheduled for tomorrow, Sunday, April 27.  General travel advice for the spring will be posted by Monday morning.  We will update the observations page every day, so please continue submitting and reading observations. Thanks for a great season and your support.   

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