Recent and wind drifted snow have increased the avalanche danger to MODERATE on steep slopes near and above tree line facing NW-N-NE-E. The problem is two fold, and human triggered avalanches involving both the new snow, as well as avalanches stepping down into buried persistent weak layers are possible. Steep, wind drifted slopes are the most dangerous, and slopes with more than about 8 inches of new snow areas should be avoided. I'm less certain about the possibility for deeper avalanches, but with over an inch of new water weight, I'm stepping back.
Conditions remain very thin, and hazards such as rocks and logs have just been thinly covered.
Avalanches involving wind drifted snow are possible today. Avoid steep slopes today that have more than about 8 inches of accumulated new snow. Wind drifted areas often have a smooth, rounded appearance and cracking is a sign of instability.
I'm less certain about the propensity for avalanches to step down into buried persistent weak layers, but this type of avalanche would be much more dangerous failing 2-3 feet deep. The Christmas rain crust is capping a snowpack that consists almost entirely of loose, sugary faceted snow. We've received a significant load of water and this is the first real test. I'm not sure if it's enough to fail below the crust yet, but if it did, it would be dangerous. So for now, I'm going to avoid steep slopes on the north side of the compass. For more on that, see the video below.
24 Hour Snow: 5" 72 Hour Snow: 5" Season Total Snow: 27" Depth at Gold Basin: 17"
Winds on Pre-Laurel Peak: NA Temp: 31° F
Weather
Wait, what's that sound? Rain pounding down on the roof top at 5:00 a.m. A warm and wet system is churning its way through the region with the the main trough passing through our area as I write. The rain/snow line appears to be right around 9000 feet. Snow totals at the Geyser Pass Trailhead are only 2 inches but with 0.9 inches of water. The Gold Basin study plot at 10,000 feet is reporting 5 inches at 1.2 inches of water with temperatures hovering just below freezing. Snowfall should continue through mid-morning. The Pre Laurel Peak wind station is again rimed up but winds blew yesterday from the southwest averaging 15-20 mph along ridge tops. They'll be on the decrease today as they shift to the northwest. Look for partly cloudy skies and possibly some clearing tonight. We should start to see increasing clouds again tomorrow ahead of the next warm system to affect our area Sunday into Monday.
General Conditions
5 inches of dense heavy snow now covers our meager snowpack with possibly up to 8 inches or more up high. On most S and SW aspects the new snow is falling on bare ground. On all other aspects, the new snow is landing on top of the Christmas rain crust with a layer of low density snow in between. Human triggered avalanches failing at the old snow surface will be possible today, especially in wind drifted areas. The crust has varying degrees of strength and thickness, and the real question is will avalanches fail on weak faceted snow below the crust? I have a fair amount of uncertainty about this but with upwards of an inch of water, it is certainly being tested. The prudent strategy today is to avoid steep slopes with pre-existing snow cover, particularly those with a northerly aspect until we see how things behave.
Snowpack and Weather Data
NEW! Gold Basin webcam storm stake
Gold Basin Storm Stake (10,000')
Gold Basin SNOTEL site (10,000')
SNOTEL site near Geyser Pass Winter Trailhead (9600')
Wind Station on Pre-Laurel Peak (11,400')
NWS forecast for the La Sal Mountains.
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
Geyser Pass Road Conditions: The road is mostly dry dirt with a few sections of packed snow and ice up high. All wheel drive and good tires are recommended.
Grooming: Trails haven't been groomed for over a week. We're experiencing some mechanical difficulties with the equipment.
Friday, January 30 - Saturday, January 31 - Moab Backcountry 101 Class - Our annual local backcountry avalanche class. Click here for information and registration. Moab and Monticello locals can use the discount code MOAB-LOCAL for a 10% discount.
