Avalanche forecast

Southeast Mountains

Crested Butte Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Out of date — this forecast expired 8 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

You can trigger an avalanche where you find cohesive slabs resting above weak snow.  You are most likely to encounter problems on leeward terrain features at upper elevations, where winds from earlier in the week drifted snow.  Monitor the new storm snow, and if you find 6 inches or more of dense snow, then you could trigger a small slide, particularly on northern half of the compass.  Avalanche problems are less likely to be encountered on sunny terrain without new or previous wind loading.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    Older slabs of wind-drifted snow are sensitive to human triggers where they formed over thin crusts and faceted weak layers,  typically near and above treeline.  Buried weak layers are most widespread and well-developed on the north half of the compass above ~10,700', but have also been found above buried crusts on southerly aspects.  The old snowpack is highly variable due to droughts, record-warm temperatures, and previous extreme wind events. Expect variable feedback as you change aspect and elevation, or move from one part of a slope to another.  A small chance exists for today's storm to form a new, thin slab where more than 6 inches accumulates on weak facets on the northern half of the compass.

    (12/28/2025)

    The crown of a skier triggered persistent slab on Schuylkill Ridge.  The slab consisted of about 18" of recent snow over weak facets near the ground, and propagated about 350' wide.    

Avalanche Discussion

The current storm is underproducing, but weather models suggest a solid shot of snow for areas to the west and north of Crested Butte (Northwest Mountains Forecast Zone) later today.  Snow Water Equivalents are running at a much higher density than normal, so the impact on buried weak layers will be greater than you might anticipate.  The avalanche hazard will be notably higher in the Northwest Mountains, where the most snow accumulates, and less hazardous in the Southeast Mountains due to less storm snow.

Observations and human-triggered avalanches from the past week highlight a generally weak snowpack with fragile weak layers on the northern half of the compass.  Below around 10,700 feet, you will encounter a crust from the Christmas rain event that often has facets below and/or above.  This video from the Anthracite Range illustrates this structure and highlights the sensitive nature of the weak layer.  As you ascend to higher elevations, weak facets from the early season and mid-December drought become the problem structure.  Anticipate a high degree of variation in the snowpack as you travel, and expect conditions could vary greatly from one slope to the next due to the unusual weather events this season.  As snow accumulates throughout the day, expect the sensitivity of avalanche problems to increase and for conditions to deteriorate. 

In the Southeast Mountains, storm totals will have much less impact on today's hazard.  However, if you encounter more than 6 inches of new snow, assume conditions are worse than forecasted.  Weak snow is common, but older slabs are isolated across the landscape and typically found in wind-drifted locations.  If the storm doesn't create a new slab, then conditions will not change much from recent days.  Dense storm snow may create a cohesive slab that is thinner than we usually see in Crested Butte.  Carefully monitor the storm totals to identify an increase in hazard. 

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