Avalanche forecast

Soldier & Wood River Valley Mtns

Sawtooth Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

The likelihood of triggering avalanches will increase throughout the day as the combination of 2-8" of new snow and wind builds reactive drifts and slabs in exposed terrain. These will grow in size and become easier to trigger as the storm progresses. Avalanches that break down into weak layers in the upper few feet of the snowpack are possible, resulting in larger, more destructive slides. You can reduce your risk today by steering clear of recently wind loaded slopes.

Conditions will be most dangerous in the Soldier Mountains where more snow will fall today.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    Today's storm will bring 2-8" of snow to this zone. Snowfall favors the western half of this zone, particularly the Soldier Mountains. Moderate to strong winds accompany this snowfall, blowing first out of the S-SE, shifting to W-NW by mid-day.  Expect to see wind slabs building throughout the day, growing in size and sensitivity as they do. You're most likely to encounter a wind slab in exposed upper elevation terrain, near ridgelines and on the sides of terrain features like gullies and ribs. These features slow the wind down and force it to drop the snow it is carrying.

    As you travel through the mountains today, look for signs that the wind has been at work. Dunes, pillows, and ripples on the snow surface are all indicators that the wind has been transporting snow. If the snow you are moving through is becoming deeper and denser, you're likely moving through wind-deposited snow. Cracks shooting out from your skis or machine are a clear sign of an unstable slab. A variety of weak snow surfaces have developed in the time since our last snowfall, which may make today's slabs more reactive.

    (1/30/2023) This large avalanche in the N Fork Soldier Ck drainage released on a SE aspect near 9000', likely over the Jan 28-29 weekend.

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    Several weak layers exist in the upper few feet of the snowpack. A prominent layer of surface hoar buried 1-1.5 feet deep has been responsible for a handful of skier and rider-triggered avalanches in the past few weeks. The most recent slide occurred near Galena Summit on Sunday (report here, photo at right/above). This layer is at its worst on sheltered, shady (W-N-E) slopes. Above this, you'll find a few layers of crusts, facets, and/or surface hoar that were buried in the second half of January. Today's storm will be the first good test for some of these newer weak layers.

    Older weak layers continue to be worrisome in this zone. Crusts, facets, and/or surface hoar are buried beneath dense, 2-4 foot thick slabs. These hefty slabs make it more difficult to impact these deeper weak layers. You'd be most likely to trigger a slide involving older weak layers in rocky, wind-affected, alpine terrain. Slopes like these have variable snow depths, with thinner areas of the snowpack that make it easier to impact these weak layers. 

    Slides that fail on persistent weak layers are less predictable than simple wind slabs. They may break wider than you expect and may wrap around terrain features that confine wind slabs. Persistent slabs can break well above you on the slope you are skiing or riding on.  Triggered wind slabs can "step-down" to these deeper weak layers, resulting in larger, more destructive avalanches.

    (1/30/2023) This 1-2 foot thick, skier-triggered avalanche failed on a layer of buried surface hoar. Surface hoar is frequently found in shady, partially treed locations like this. N-NE aspect near 9100' in the Salmon River drainage near Galena Summit.

Avalanche Discussion

STEPPING BACK

Snowfall returns to our region today. In the past week, we've seen the likelihood of triggering avalanches gradually decrease. Today, we head in the opposite direction. While forecasted snow totals aren't in the same range as the monster storms early this winter, there will be plenty of new snow to change the picture out there. Your likelihood of triggering avalanches will increase throughout the day as the snow piles up. Today's snow is falling on a variety of snow surfaces, many of them weak. Surface hoar, facets, and crusts with facets on top have all been observed in the previous few days. This weak snow will make today's wind slabs more reactive than they would be otherwise. 

The snowpack varies significantly across this zone. On the eastern side, in the Big and Little Wood drainages, the snowpack is thinner and much of it has faceted in recent weeks. On the western side, from Dollarhide west into the Soldiers, the snowpack is thicker and buried weak layers have hefty slabs resting on top of them. A few layers of surface hoar exist on sheltered, shady slopes, while crusts with and without facets on top can be found on slopes that face the sun. These weak layers will be stressed by today's storm, particularly in areas where the wind is building slabs. Wind slabs can step down to these weak layers, resulting in larger, more destructive avalanches. 

Today, it's a safe bet that conditions will become more dangerous as the storm progresses. Go into the mountains ready to take a step back from the type of terrain you played in yesterday. Choose your terrain with this in mind.

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