Avalanche forecast

Newberry

Central Oregon Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Out of date — this forecast expired 6 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

On sheltered slopes that face North we are continuing to find weak snow deep within the snow pack.  These layers are pretty stubborn, and avalanches remain unlikely, but any avalanche on these layers would be large enough to kill a rider, and we can't rule out the possibility.  For this reason be wary of steep, unsupported slopes that face north.  With warming temperatures and clearing skies I am expecting we will see smaller Wet Loose avalanches on sunny slopes.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1.5–3

    Our field team continues to find weak layers buried in the snowpack.  The two layers in question are a layer of buried surface hoar now 50 cm. deep, and a layer of faceted snow that is approximately 70 cm deep.  We have yet to see any avalanche activity on either of these layers.  However, when we do stability tests like compression tests and tests for propagation, they are still giving results that we might associate with avalanches.

    I think riders are unlikely to trigger avalanches on these layers, but if triggered this type of avalanche could easily be fatal.  Low likelihood, High consequence.  Personally I have been avoiding steep, unsupported and especially larger slopes that exist on these sheltered north aspects.

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Saturday is looking pretty warm.  Small avalanches are possible in melting snow, particularly on steep sunny slopes.  These avalanches can be surprisingly forceful given how heavy the wet snow can be.

Avalanche Discussion

Despite the status quo in avalanche danger, we have seen quite the range in weather out at the monument.  We picked up several inches of nice snow mid-week, but are now heading back into a few days of warm and dry weather.  Once you get up to the lake level there is better coverage than we've seen all winter.  I'm not saying it's deep (our snow depth sensor just above the lake is measuring 2 ft.), but the riding tends to be better than most would imagine from town!

**Note:  The pictures and video below were taken 1 week ago, but still accurately reflect the weak layers we are finding.**

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