Avalanche forecast

Selkirk Mountains

Idaho Panhandle Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Tue
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

The primary avalanche hazard on Monday is deep, drifted slabs lurking in leeward-facing slopes below ridgelines and in cross-loaded gullies exposed to the wind. By the afternoon, wet snow hazards will start to emerge as rapidly warming temperatures and light rain climb toward 7,000 feet. Once surface wetting and storm snow softening occurs, avalanche conditions might abruptly worsen and warrant a shift in mindset to favor lower-angled terrain without steep overhead hazards or terrain traps below.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Up to three feet of recent snowfall blankets mountaintops and ridgelines, and this snow has now been both available and easily transported by the wind at upper elevations. A person or machine can trigger freshly formed slabs in large fetches on the leeward side of ridgelines, or other places that collect and accumulate wind-drifted snow. With moderate wind speeds forecasted, and abundant soft snow at the surface still, we expect these slabs to continue growing throughout the day. Cracking around your skis or machine and dense cakey feeling snow are both signals that you are traveling in an area with recently wind drifted snow.Moving debris from a triggered wind slab, could be enough to provoke and release a much larger avalanche that breaks on deeply buried weak layers described below in the Persistent Slab Problem.

    (3/11/2026)

    Small test slopes consistently produced cracking out in front of our skis. Each time, the failure occurred at a lower storm snow interface where 4F- snow sits directly on a crust and below a stiffer slab (1F to 4F). This near-surface layering combined with easy failure ECTPs was enough for us to avoid steeper drifted slopes. West Cabinet Mountains. March 11, 2026. 

    Photo: Chris Bilbrey

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    On Monday, we will see an increasing hazard of Wet Loose avalanches in terrain below about 6500 feet. Across the region, there are many places with one to three feet of recent snowfall. And on most slopes, today will be the first time that this recent snow is significantly wetted. This change is expected to occur quite rapidly due to an aggressive spike in temperatures combined with light rain throughout the day.When you start feeling the new snow sticking to your skis, boards, or sleds, or if you notice rollerballs and pinwheels fanning down across steeper slopes, that should be your signal that’s its time to migrate your mindset and terrain choices for the day. Find lower angle slopes to play on for the remainder of the afternoon or maybe consider just heading back to the parking lot. Steep gullies, cliffs, and large road cuts can amplify the consequences of loose snow avalanches, so avoid traveling directly above or below these features.

    (2/10/2026)

    Rain wetting the snow surface and a prolonged period of above freezing temperatures will cause the recent snowfall to lose cohesion and start to sluff downhill. Wet hazards are likely to arrive at lower elevations first and work upward as snow levels rise and precipitation turns from snow to rain. Sluffs can entrain more snow while moving and make a larger pile at the bottom.

    Photo: Mikey Church

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    2–3

    A cohesive slab 3 to 5 feet thick overlies two buried surface hoar layers, with slab depths continuing to increase with each passing storm. One surface hoar layer was buried at the end of January (1/28), and the other in mid-February around Valentine’s Day (2/14). The overlying slab has stiffened and settled due to wind, warmer temperatures, and natural settlement within the snowpack.

    As the slab has strengthened, the likelihood of human-triggered or natural avalanches has decreased. However, persistent weak layers always carry uncertainty, and these layers are currently being tested by warming temperatures light precipitation. If one of these layers were to become reactive, the potential remains for large to very large, destructive avalanches with serious consequences.

    The 2/14 buried surface hoar is rounding, but large feathers that are 6-10mm in size can still be found near and above tree line. 

    March 15, 2026. 

    Photo: Izzy Davis

Avalanche Discussion

The last stormy period added a nice boost to the mountain snowpack and for the Silver Valley, it was the biggest storm of the season - and maybe the past few seasons too. Storm totals range 6 to 20 inches in the Purcells, 12 to 22 inches in the Selkirks, 24 to 37 inches in the West Cabinets, 38 to 40 inches in the East Cabinets, and 35 to 58 inches in the Bitterroots-Silver Valley. This amounts to 1.5 to 3 inches of Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) in the Selkirk and Purcell Mountains and 2.7 to 5 inches of SWE in the Cabinet and Bitterroot Mountains. The Lost Lake SNOTEL, just south of our southern forecast zone, in the St. Joe Mountains received a staggering 7.1 inches of SWE in four days.Looking out the window this morning in Sandpoint, light snow continues to fall. We are holding our breath though as a major shift is expected to take place this afternoon. Temperatures are currently forecasted to agressively spike mid-day, with freezing levels and the subsequent rain/snow line reaching above 6000 feet before nightfall. This will not only put a damper on the enjoyabe powder snow conditions, but has the potential to once again rock the boat in terms of avalanche hazard. Warm moist air is expected to persist through Friday without an overnight freeze occuring in the mountains the rest of this week. Sloppy surfaces will be the first and most obvious consequence of this change, but there is much more uncertainty and questions surrounding how this moisture and prolonged warming might impact deeply buried weak layers from January and February. The dynamic processes going on deeper in the snowpack during warming and rain on snow events are complex, and predicting the subsequent avalanche behavior, likelihood, and timing of release, is somewhere between challenging to almost impossible. 

We will continue to do our best delivering the most up-to-date and accurate snowpack, weather, and avalanche information in our products, but it's safe to say right now there will be a degree of uncertainity baked into these unusually warm and wet days ahead.

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