Avalanche forecast

Gunnison

Crested Butte Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
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Highlights

11,000ft temperatures have remained above freezing since Tuesday! A natural wet avalanche cycle began yesterday and will continue on Saturday, creating dangerous avalanche conditions. There will be a brief period of better stability this morning while the upper snowpack remains frozen, before the danger climbs back to Considerable and daytime warming continues to trigger natural wet avalanches. Travel early in steep terrain before surface crusts thaw or meltwater penetrates deeper into the snowpack. 

Avalanche problems

  • Wet Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    Travel early in the day to limit your exposure to both wet slab and loose wet avalanches. A natural wet avalanche cycle began on Friday.  Mountain temperatures will again crest 55°F following another poor overnight refreeze. As meltwater advances, it can weaken the upper snowpack or buried weak layers, causing dangerous slab releases or gouging loose avalanches. Wet avalanches are less likely early in the day while the surface remains frozen and meltwater production is limited. The hazard increases as the snowpack warms and free water moves deeper. The most concerning terrain is where previously dry snowpacks are transitioning to wet conditions this week—especially in steeper, rockier slopes. Many south-facing slopes have already made this transition, while high-elevation northerly aspects are unlikely to produce enough meltwater today.  

    Wet loose avalanche activity has a distribution similar to that of the wet slab avalanche problem. In some areas, surface crusts are limiting avalanche size, while in others, these avalanches are gouging through the entire snowpack, becoming powerful and large. Areas with a wet snowpack that struggles to support your weight are a big red flag and should tell you to avoid traveling in steep terrain. 

    This photo has it all. A pair of gouging wet loose avalanches to the left, a wet slab to the right, and an ice lens sitting on the snow surface in the alpine. 

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    2–2.5

    Old, hard slabs 2 to 3+ feet thick overlie buried weak layers and are isolated and difficult to trigger. Without obvious warning signs, avalanches are most likely triggered where the slab is thinner and easier to impact the weak layer below.  Cornice falls can also act as triggers. You can reduce your risk by avoiding steep terrain with a thin or variable snowpack, such as rocky areas, rollovers, or places where wind has created uneven slab thickness. The southern half of the compass and slopes with consistently deep and uniform snow depths offer safer options.

    The last persistent slab avalanche in the Northwest Mountains ran in late February on Mt. Axtell.  It released below a cornice on a steep face that has avalanched multiple times this winter. 

Avalanche Discussion

Schofield Pass at 10,700ft, hit 60 degrees yesterday. That blows my mind. Gothic set a daily record, reaching 67, and Gunnison hit 78 degrees. These are crazy temperatures for this time of year. The heat is creating an unstable snowpack in many areas, highlighted by the wet avalanche problem distribution rose. In contrast, some southerly facing terrain has already transitioned to a more mature spring snowpack. Outside of avalanche terrain, oversnow travel is becoming difficult in some areas as the snowpack becomes punchy and unable to support your weight. Sorry folks, the moose out front should have told you that the snowpack is broken. Eventually, we'll get back to nice spring skiing conditions, but for now, corn skiing is very limited until we get back to some cooler temperatures. 

These three observations (1, 2, 3) capture what we have documented so far at the start of this wet avalanche cycle. The distribution of this avalanche activity fits well with the current distribution shown by the wet avalanche problem. The most concerning terrain is where previously dry snowpacks are transitioning to wet conditions this week—especially in steeper, rockier slopes. While on southerly-facing slopes at near- and below-treeline elevations, the snowpack has either completely melted away or transitioned to a more mature spring snowpack, leading to less avalanche activity. Interestingly, the February rain crust has limited wet avalanche activity where it has remained intact on some slopes. 

Sunday will have cooler temperatures by 5 to 10 degrees, but we will still see warm temperatures on Saturday night, and increased cloud cover may affect radiative cooling on the snow surface. So we can expect similar wet avalanche conditions on Sunday. There is a slight chance the mountains could see temperatures below freezing on Sunday night. Otherwise, we are stuck letting this wet avalanche cycle run its course until we see better stability. 

You can read the latest weekly summary here, or watch the video recap here. 

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