Avalanche forecast

Togwotee Pass

Bridger-Teton Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Thu
Alpine
1 · Low
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
No rating
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Out of date — this forecast expired 3 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

It is unlikely that you will trigger an avalanche today. Chances remain highest in steep, rocky terrain on northerly aspects where slabs could be 1-3 feet deep. Although the possibility of triggering an avalanche is unlikely, the consequences could be high in terrain where you get strained through trees, rocks or pushed into terrain traps. 

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1–1.5

    Today, low danger means that the odds are stacked in your favor, it is not a guarantee that you will beat the house. It is unlikely that you will trigger a persistent slab avalanche, but it is not impossible.  The snowpack is variable on Togwotee, and in places where the December slab sits over weak, sugary November snow we continue to see propagation occur at that interface in pit results. Snow pits are only one piece of the puzzle though, and there has not been a reported avalanche in over two weeks.  While unlikely, if you happen to find the shallow spot in the snowpack that triggers the avalanche, the resulting slide could be consequential given the shallow snowpack with rocks and stumps lurking just below the surface.

    This problem is most likely to be found at mid and upper elevastions on northwest through northeast aspects. Continue to trench your sled track or dig into the snow to see if the weak structure exists where you are riding. Avoid terrain traps and consider consequences. Sheltered notherly slopes remain your best bet for good riding.

    (12/15/2023)

    Natural avalanche 10,500' SE aspect likely occured on 12/10 after loading event when winds increased. 

    Photo: Alex Drinkard

Avalanche Discussion

The snowpack has had over two weeks to adjust to the current load. Most of the puzzle pieces are painting a picture pf stability. No avalanches or significant loading in two weeks, red flags are down and tracks riddle the slopes. It will be easy to let your guard down today. While it is unlikely that you will trigger an avalanche, I still won’t enter steep, rocky, unsupported slopes with any sort of consequence. There are still hints in the snowpack that make me nervous in  those specific terrain situations. Even a small slab can have high consequences when combined with a thin snowpack that contains hidden obstacles or if you get knocked off your feet above a cliff or rolled into a tight creek bed.

The dry spell that ended several days ago left us with several surface conditions that will be worth tracking moving forward. The strong diurnal temperature swings created crusts on south aspects and faceted snow on shady aspects as well as surface hoar on multiple aspects and elevations. As you ride, dig around and see what's under the recent few inches - it might help predict where future problems are located when we get our next big snow load.

Enjoy the good snow that can be found on shady aspects today but don’t let consequential terrain catch you off guard.

Regions covered