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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 24th, 2017–Mar 25th, 2017

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Lizard-Flathead.

Wind and snow will build fresh wind slabs overnight Friday into Saturday. Avoid lingering in the runout of avalanche paths as a cornice fall could trigger a large avalanche.

Confidence

Low - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

Weather Forecast

There is significant uncertainty regarding precipitation amounts for Friday into Saturday. Unsettled weather and isolated flurries Sunday onwards. SATURDAY: 5-20cm possible Friday overnight with strong southwest winds.Light flurries easing off throughout the day on Saturday. Freezing level 1500m , alpine temperature around -4 C.SUNDAY: Sunny with some cloudy breaks, moderate southwest wind, freezing level 1600mMONDAY: Isolated flurries with 2-4 cm possible. Moderate southwest wind, freezing level around 1700 m with alpine temperature around -2 C.

Avalanche Summary

On Thursday, a few small storm slabs were reported to run naturally overnight in steep alpine terrain and then also react to explosives in the morning (size 1-1.5). More evidence of large deep persistent slab avalanches from last weekend's avalanche cycle were also reported from the Barnes Lake and Cold Feet areas.Expect wind slabs to develop throughout the day on Friday into Saturday as another pulse of snow and wind arrives in the afternoon. However, the primary concern is the potential for deep persistent slab avalanches triggered by natural triggers such as a cornice fall. See the forecaster blog for advice on managing a low probability - high consequence problem (here) and the accompanying photos (here).

Snowpack Summary

Light precipitation has delivered 15-25 cm of heavy snow at higher elevations, while rain has soaked the snow below about 1800 m. The new snow is bonding well to a thick rain crust that has capped the snowpack at all elevations. Daytime warming and sunlight tend to break down the crust in some areas, but it remains frozen on northerly alpine terrain. Isolated basal facets exist in shallow snowpack areas and still have the potential to produce destructive full-depth avalanches.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.