Avalanche forecast

East Cabinet Mountains

Idaho Panhandle Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Wed
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

New snow and moderate winds are forming fresh wind slabs in leeward terrain at upper elevations.  Last week's arctic air preserved persistent weak layers that are still present in the snow.  Surface hoar developed during this period of cold air and a couple of clear nights; it is now buried a foot or more beneath the surface on most aspects.  Upper elevation terrain steeper than 35 degrees warrants a closer look before committing to the slope.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    Moderate to strong southwest winds are building sensitive windslabs at treeline and above on north and east facing terrain.  Dense windslabs are present near ridgelines and leeward features and will be sensitive to human triggers in steep terrain.  Expect these wind slabs to build in size and reactivity with consistent southwest wind, and new snow forecasted in the next few days.  Pay attention to terrain traps such as cliffs, trees, and depressions or gully's below, in wind loaded terrain.  Windslabs themselves are likely to be small in relative size and isolated to leeward terrain, but have potential to initiate or trigger buried weak layers in the right location. 

    14" windslab crown triggered at ridgeline in West Cabinets on Feb. 06

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    A layer of surface hoar formed during last weeks arctic intrusion is now buried about 1-2 feet deep on all aspects at treeline and above.  Deeper down, weak facets are present above and below the 1/13 "Lucky Friday" rain crust.  Reactivity on these two weak layers is inconsistent and highly dependent on your location.  In many locations it will give you a lot of room for error, but, if you find the "sweet" spot, there is potential to trigger a large avalanche.  Use test slopes and inconsequential terrain to check for these layers before seeking big objectives. 

Avalanche Discussion

We've recieved 30 inches of new snow since Jan 30th according to the Bear Mtn snotel site.  In many locations there is really good riding right now!  Todays venture to the West Cabinets "bear" this out.  There are however a few reasons to precede with some caution as you travel in the mountains.  Backing  up to Friday January 13th, we had the start of a significant rain event to the uppemost reaches of our range.  This formed a fairly stout rain crust that bridged most problems we'd been dealing with up to that point.  In the subsequent weeks, more snow, more warm, more wind, and then more cold.  On January 28th we recieve between 8-15 inches of snow creating a brief period of "High" avalanche danger.  Then Jan. 29th ushered in an arctic blast with single digit to negative zero (-0)  temperatures and strong winds from the north and east.  Fast forward to today.  Cold temps from the arctic intrustion created facets above and below the "Lucky Friday" rain crust; a new crop of surface formed; new snow buried the surface hoar, then new snow and wind from the southwest re-distributed snow. 

What we are left with is a variety of weak interfaces below the snow surface and wind blown snow forming dense windslabs at upper elavation bands.  Windslabs will heal, usually within a few days.  In the short term give them some space and understand the consequence of testing them.  Reacitvity of the persistent weak layers have proven to be sporadic; reactive in one location and stubborn in the next, present here, and absent there (in terms of reactivity), concerning, then, maybe not so.  This leads me to encourage investigation, investigation of the slope angle, aspect, terrain features, and most importantly investigate the surface beneath you, if you choose consequential terrain.  Terrain where a small mistake may wreck your day.  Skiing and riding right now is "high quality" if you stay away from a few "low likely hood but high consequence scenarios".   "Unlikey" but "possible" at the same time.

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