Avalanche forecast

Togwotee Pass

Bridger-Teton Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Thu
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
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Out of date — this forecast expired 4 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Wind slabs that formed with yesterday's new snowfall and wind remain a problem and continue to add weight to weak snow layers deeper in the snowpack. You’re most likely to encounter a sensitive slab in upper-elevation terrain, particularly where they are resting on hard, icy surfaces.  Keep this problem in mind, particularly when traveling in steep, rocky, or wind-affected terrain.

 

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    Newly fallen and wind-blown snow continue to add stress to persistent weak layers buried 2-3 feet deep as well as at the ground. These layers are widespread at middle and upper elevations and are responsible for the majority of recorded avalanches so far this season. An avalanche failing on one of these layers has the potential to break wider than expected, span multiple terrain features, and will include the majority of the snowpack. Slides have the potential to pull back into low-angle terrain near the top of a slope. 

    It’s a safe bet that weak snow lies beneath your boards or sled. To reduce the chances of triggering a slide on these layers I’ve been steering clear of obviously wind-loaded terrain and sticking to gentler, lower-angle slopes.

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2.5

    Early-season persistent weak layers are widespread throughout this zone. In the deeper portions of this zone, these layers are typically found in the bottom half of the snowpack and have been showing better stability. In the middle elevations and shallower areas, the weak snow near the ground is especially pronounced and produced. You're likely to find weak layers near the ground as well as sandwiched between old wind slabs. 

    Triggering a persistent slab avalanche remains possible in terrain with the following characteristics:

    • Steep: slopes in prime-time avalanche terrain around 35-45 degrees.
    • Wind-affected: heavily wind-loaded by past or recent wind events.
    • Alpine flavor: complex, windswept terrain with rock ribs, cliff bands, or convexities.

    (2/11/2023)

    Brush Creek Avalanche showing a surface snow avalanche and additional, weaker snow layers breaking near the ground. 

Avalanche Discussion

It Depends

Today will be a beautiful (albeit chilly) day in the mountains; sunshine and soft snow most everywhere you look. But don’t let the picture-perfect weather today, and throughout the next few days, lull you into thinking that the snowpack is perfect too. We tend to think that instability tapers off after an initial storm event—and sometimes, it does. The other side to this coin is that sometimes, it depends.  With shifting winds, temperatures, and added solar input, instability can ebb and flow, remain for far longer, and often increase days after a storm has passed. Unlike persistent slab problems, the stability of wind slabs can change rapidly — in both directions. Winds blowing out of the N continued to transport snow last night. This wind increased the thickness and the distribution of the slabs that formed yesterday. However, these slabs have now had some time to bond to the surfaces that they were deposited on. So, what does that mean for you? 

If you were out yesterday and you go out again today you'll probably notice two things: the wind slabs you encounter will be thicker than what you saw yesterday, but they may be showing fewer signs of obvious instability. In the absence of a persistent weak layer, wind slab stability can increase relatively quickly. As these slabs have had time to bond to the snow they are sitting on, they were also growing in size due to the ongoing winds. As you head out to enjoy the snow, keep this variability in mind and frequently check in to see how the new snow is bonding with the old snow surface. Practice safe travel habits and conservative decision-making in the backcountry. Picture the consequences of being caught in a slide in the terrain you are traveling in, not just the reward of riding great fresh snow. 

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