Avalanche forecast

Tetons

Bridger-Teton Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Fri
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Out of date — this forecast expired 3 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Dangerous and large human-triggered avalanches remain a concern today, especially in steep terrain and even on steep, wooded slopes in the mid-elevations. Low consequence and lower angle slopes remain the better option today.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1.5–3

    The buried December facets, and especially the surface hoar, remain a concern. The snow that's fallen since January 4 has settled into a firm slab that is less reactive now than two weeks ago, but could still be triggered on many aspects and elevations, and could break in surprising ways above you or beside you on a slope. Wind affected areas, thin spots and mid-elevation slopes with a thinner snowpack can produce slides 2-4' thick on this layer. You're likely to hear and feel collapsing  which is a great reminder of the weak snow under you.  Shallower slides in the one to two foot range are possible below 7,500'.  

    An older weak layer that formed in November exists on northerly aspects at mid and upper elevations. Though generally dormant, avalanches that step down to this layer could be very large and destructive. No avalanches have stepped down to this layer since the peak of the last avalanche cycle on Jan 10/11th.

    (1/23/2024)

    This avalanche occurred in the northern part of GTNP on Tuesday. The skier was buried but quickly rescued by skilled companions. 

Avalanche Discussion

The peristent slab avalanche type has been trending towards "possible" to trigger rather than "likely" to trigger. If there was a "Moderate plus" or "spicy Moderate" rating, we'd use it now. The fact is that it's been just two days since a human triggered avalanche on this layer and that avalanche propagated a good distance from the skiers involved. The weak layer in play now has resulted in very long propagating cracks and slides that broke well above the trigger. The behavior of this weak layer and the hard slab sitting on it make this problem type very difficult to "manage" and very consequential if triggered. These factors leave s in an elevated danger rating despite the decrease in human triggered avalanche activity and the unlikely-ness of natural avalanches.

Avalanche educators and forecasters harp on the message to use safe travel techniques like avoiding terrain traps, travelling one at a time and being aware of terrain and slope angles. Now is definitely the time to do all those things. Recent avalanche incidents show a mixed bag that include examples of the application of good and not-so-good travel techniques. You can sort avalanche observations on this website by zone, by trigger, and by aspect and elevation and other factors to get a sense of the trend and some of the details of these reported incidents. Remember that there are many avalanches not reported that turn up in conversations or social media. Please remeber to take a moment to submit your observations. They are as important now as after a big avalanche cycle. And many thanks to those who have submitted!

 

 

 

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