Avalanche forecast

Gunnison

Crested Butte Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Wed
Alpine
1 · Low
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 3 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Take advantage of our unusually safe avalanche conditions now before we get back into more active weather this weekend.  In steep, wind and sun protected terrain, you can trigger a small loose dry avalanche in the soft, sugary snow surface.  Triggering a slab avalanche is unlikely; any lingering concerns are confined to previously wind-drifted slopes where the snow surface is smooth and firm.  

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1–2

    After below-average snowfall for the last three weeks, weak layers near the ground are dormant on most slopes. A northerly wind event on Christmas formed a newer generation of persistent slabs on leeward terrain features where hard, drifted slabs buried facets or faceted crusts in the upper snowpack. Those newer slabs have now also become stubborn or unreactive to triggering. The most concerning terrain features are where a recently formed hard slab is hanging on an unsupported slope such as a convexity, over a cliff band, or in extreme terrain.   When in doubt, move to softer or more wind-eroded snow.  

    Train your eye to look for the last potential troublemakers: hard slabs like these They will most commonly be hanging out on the lee sides of ridgelines or in concave terrain features.

Avalanche Discussion

Since December 9th, Gothic townsite has only picked up 6" of snow.  The late December drought has contributed to a stabilizing snowpack.  The most recent notable weather event was strong northerly winds from December 25th to 26th, which caused an increase in avalanche activity on wind-drifted slopes.   Since then, triggered avalanches have been rare.  Large explosives have triggered a couple of hard slabs in the past week at Irwin and CMBR (up to D1.5), and a skier was caught and carried in a small slab about a week ago. 

With each day of dry weather, the snow surface grows weaker.  On shaded aspects sheltered from the previous winds, you can trigger small loose dry avalanches in the faceted snow.  This is a relatively harmless issue unless you get knocked over by your sluff in high-consequence terrain.  Unfortunately, this same weak snow will be quite problematic below future loading events.  Now is a good time to go on an adventure in the mountains and take advantage of unusually safe mid-winter avalanche conditions.  Conditions will certainly become more dangerous when the storm track returns; likely by this weekend.  

Regions covered