Avalanche forecast

Summit Lake

Chugach National Forest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

There are three avalanche problems that will make for dangerous conditions in the alpine today. Northerly winds will continue to make avalanches around 1' deep likely in wind-loaded terrain. These drifts of snow are loading a snowpack with multiple stubborn weak layers, which may produce larger avalanches up to 2 to 3' deep. Finally, the ongoing glide avalanche cycle is not showing any signs of slowing down, which means we will likely continue to see some avalanches taking out the entire season's snowpack down to the ground.

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Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Recent Avalanches: We continue to see glide avalanches release from Girdwood to Seward. The last known avalanches that weren't glide-related were two skier-triggered avalanches on Tenderfoot Ridge over two weeks ago. Both of these were triggered remotely and failed on a layer of buried surface hoar about a foot deep at the time.

    While we may see a slight decrease in the northerly winds that have been hitting the Summit Lake zone for the past few days, they will likely remain strong enough to continue blowing snow into reactive slabs in upper elevation start zones. These have been forming on top of several weak layers (see Problem 2), which means they may produce larger avalanches failing deeper in the snowpack. Expect the most dangerous conditions on steep slopes just below ridgelines, convexities, or gullies. Approach steep terrain with caution today, and consider sticking to lower-angle slopes for now.

    (12/10/2025)

    Wind-effected snow in the alpine on Colorado Ridge. Those upper start zones have been getting loaded from different directions during the past few days.

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–3

    There are multiple layers of weak snow buried anywhere from 1 to 3' deep or possibly deeper on some slopes. They can be lumped into two groups:

    1. Weak, faceted snow buried up to a foot deep. This formed during the current cold snap, and was buried by yesterday's northwesterly winds. This will be more concerning as you gain elevation, and will be most concerning in previously wind-loaded terrain. This is closely related to the issues described in Problem 1.

    2. Three different layers of buried surface hoar. These were buried during three separate storm events in November. The last known avalanche on any of these weak layers was over two weeks ago, which may indicate the layer is gaining strength, or it could simply be a result of decreased traffic since the last avalanche cycle. It's most likely a combination of the two, and we suspect a person may still be able to trigger an avalanche on one of these layers on isolated slopes above treeline.

    Group 1 will be easier to evaluate than Group 2, but you will not always get clear feedback even when conditions are dangerous. As always, pay close attention to warning signs like shooting cracks, collapsing, and fresh avalanche activity as indicators of unstable conditions. For now, we recommend avoiding steep terrain, especially slopes that have been recently wind-loaded. It is also important to be mindful of the higher uncertainty associated with evaluating layers of buried surface hoar, and avoid any steep slopes with terrain traps like cliffs, trees, or gullies in the runout zones.

  • Glide Cracks

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–3

    We're continuing to monitor a very active glide avalanche cycle throughout all of our forecast areas. These avalanches are large and destructive, and they involve the entire season's snowpack failing at the ground. There is no way of predicting exactly when they will release, and we have seen several of these avalanches fail without any existing cracks on the slope.

    What can you do with this information? First, avoid spending any time under slopes with open glide cracks. Second, if you are traveling under steep terrain, be sure to travel one at a time and move quickly.

    (12/10/2025)

    A mess of glide avalanches of varying ages on Butch.

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