Avalanche forecast

Douglas Island

Coastal Alaska Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
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Highlights

Heavy snowfall  across Douglas started yesterday morning bringing the avalanche danger to considerable today and trending toward high for tomorrow with more snowfall and warming expected throughout today. If you choose to travel in avalanche terrain today careful snowpack assesment, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision-making are strongly advised.  Human triggered avalanches are likely and some natural avalnches are possible especially near wind loaded slopes.  Windloading from strong overnight Southeasterly winds will make lee slopes extra sensitive and may create favorable conditions for larger avalanches.

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Our current storm slab problem started to build yesterday and actively continues today at all elevations and aspects. The depth of the storm slab will be variable as the snowfall began as light dry snow and was easily moved around by the wind. The new snow/old snow interface will be the most likely layer that the storm slab will run on and may be reactive to triggering especially as more snow falls and the thaw creeps up in elevation. Likely trigger points are convex rolls and unsupported open slopes between 30-45 degrees and should be avoided.

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2.5

    Strong Southeasterly winds blew all night actively loading lee slopes faster than the already rapidly accumulating snowfall.  While the majority of this wind slab will be mostly found on Northerly facing aspects the mountainous terrain of Douglas Island can cross load other aspects as well particularly in places likes chutes and gullies. The depth of the wind slab has the potential to be greater than just the storm slab, easier to trigger, and the ability to propogate farther.

Avalanche Discussion

Heavy snow, strong winds, and warming temperatures are in store for the mountains of Douglas today. These conditions will cause rapid additional stress on our snowpack and will cause avalanche hazard to increase throughout the day.  Careful terrain/route selection is strongly encouraged for skiers and riders today as our hazard is widespread and at all elevations. Human triggered avalanches are likley and natural avalanches are possible.  Avalanche danger will likely stay elevated as an active weather pattern is in store for the coming week. If conditions persist, travel in avalanche terrain may not be recommended. Skiers and riders are encouraged to submit observations of any avalanche activity witnessed throughout the week. 

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