Avalanche forecast

Summit Lake

Chugach National Forest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 7 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

The Summit Lake snowpack remains concerning at mid and upper elevations where surface crusts are unsupportable or nonexistent. There is still a good chance a person can trigger a large avalanche failing on weak snow buried 2 to 4' deep. It is also likely a person will trigger a smaller avalanche failing within windblown snow in the alpine. For now, the only way to manage this problem is to avoid traveling on or below steep terrain.

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Join CNFAC forecaster Dr. John Sykes at Arctic Valley this afternoon for a chat about current conditions and thoughts on managing terrain while dealing with a problematic snowpack. The event is free, and the talk will start at 5:30.  CNFAC is hosting several other avalanche awareness and rescue workshops in the coming weeks in Anchorage, Seward, and Turnagain Pass. Click this link to get more information!

Join us Friday, Feb. 13, for the annual Snowball fundraiser! This event is a collaboration with the Alaska Avalanche School and is always a fun way to support two nonprofit organizations that provide avalanche information and education in our area. Silent auction, beverages, hors d'oeuvres, and music by Hope Social Club! Tickets and event info at alaskaavalanche.org

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–3

    Recent Avalanches: Summit Lake did not get as much precipitation out of the most recent storm, and saw much less natural avalanche activity as a result. We observed a widespread natural avalanche cycle last week, with noteable avalanches on Roaring Ridge, Manitoba, Butch, and Ravens Ridge.

    The Summit Lake snowpack has been giving us clear signs that it has been slower to heal than most of the rest of our forecast area. Most recently, our interns Nate and Marc reported collapses on Manitoba Mtn Thursday. This was the most recent report of clear warning signs, with nearly every observation from the Summit Lake zone reporting similar feedback for the past month. We've seen multiple very large natural avalanches and continue to get unstable test results. All signs indicate the Summit Lake snowpack remains very concerning.

    The most recent warm spell has been helping to push the snowpack in the right direction, but it remains reactive. There is still a good chance a person will trigger a large avalanche on a layer of faceted snow buried 2 to 4' deep, especially at mid and upper elevations where surface crusts are unsupportable or non-existent. The best way to manage this problem for now is to avoid traveling on or below steep terrain.

     

    (2/1/2026)

    Two very wide crowns (one in the foreground and one in the background). The foreground is Roaring Ridge, and the background is a sub-peak just west of Twin Peaks.

    Photo: Andrew Schauer

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Winds have been blowing a steady 10 to 20 mph since the most recent storm passed, and have been at work moving snow into reactive slabs at upper elevations. The most likely place to find unstable snow in the upper snowpack will be at higher elevations near ridgelines, convex rollovers, and steep gullies.

    You may notice signs like shooting cracks or collapsing, but those won't always show up even when the snowpack is unstable. Keep in mind, a relatively smaller avalanche failing near the surface may trigger a larger avalanche failing on the deeper weak layer discussed in Problem 1 above.

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