Avalanche forecast

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Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

A warm storm will put an end to our sunny weather on Saturday.  At higher elevations above the rain/snow line, consider steering around steep slopes below ridgelines where you could trigger an avalanche in wind-drifted snow. If it's raining on dry snow, expect wet avalanches and look for rollerballs as a sign to move to lower angle terrain. 

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Snow and moderate winds could form fresh wind slabs on Saturday and add depth to older wind slabs. The most suspect slopes are steep terrain below ridgelines and the base of cliffs. Most avalanches in freshly wind-drifted snow are likely to be small. However, some older wind slabs formed over weak snow on the 1/28 crust and might be larger than you expect.  Consider steering around steep slopes on lee aspects with deep wind drifted snow. 

    Newly formed wind slabs may show signs of instability, such as cracking, and you can identify wind-loaded slopes by visual clues, including actively drifting snow or textured surfaces.  Older wind slabs may not give such obvious signs of instability, and there is a lot of uncertainty about the distribution of where you could trigger one of these. We expect the weak snowpack structure to be isolated but difficult to pinpoint. The last documented avalanche on this layer occurred on Wednesday, but a fresh snowfall and wind could make it easier to trigger. 

    (2/4/2026)

    An intentionally triggered wind slab that ran on the 1/28 crust ~16" (40cm) below the surface. Size D1.5. Swamp Creek, 7,500ft, ESS-ASc-D1.5-O

    Photo: NCH

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    It's been warm over the past few days, and sunny slopes formed surface crusts. But rain will be the equalizer, bringing wet avalanche concerns around the compass dial. Slopes at lower elevations below the inversion and shady slopes are susceptible to wet avalanches as rain climbs into the mid elevations. Rollerballs, natural wet loose avalanches, or sticky, wet surfaces are the first signs of wet loose avalanches. If you begin to see these signs, consider moving to lower angle terrain. 

    Another hazard of the warm temperatures and rain is shedding cornices or rock slabs. Avoid lingering below these blocks of snow, while they are a hazard all on their own, they could also trigger a slab avalanche on the slope below. 

    (1/14/2026)

    Loose wet avalanches, broken cornices, and wind features. Hinkhouse Peak. S, 7,400ft

    Photo: Josh Hirshberg

Avalanche Discussion

This isn't the cold storm we were all hoping for, but it will bring a few inches of high-elevation snow. Lower elevations will be wet and soggy from the start, and we expect rain to reach the mid-elevations by Saturday afternoon. There is a better chance for lower elevation snow towards the end of the weekend, so keep your fingers crossed that this is a quick turnaround of conditions.

The recent storm brought 8-14" of snow that rests over the January 28th interface.  Professionals in the Washington Pass area observed small but widespread wet loose activity on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Surface crusts on sunny slopes likely helped to limit wet avalanche activity more on Thursday. There was weak faceted snow above the 1/28 crust, which was the likely culprit in an intentionally triggered slab avalanche on the E aspect of Tower Mt.  However, further snowpack investigations across multiple areas didn't identify the same weak layer. Potentially indicating that this layer is not widespread or consistent in the terrain. 

Expect that terrain on the southern and western aspects has surface crusts that formed over the last few days. They likely range in thickness from supportable to breakable, depending on aspect and elevation. The warm temperatures also moved around the compass dial, but the surface crusts on shady northern aspects are very thin, barely perceptible in some locations. 

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