Avalanche forecast

Seward and Lost Lake

Chugach National Forest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Thu
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

A little refresh of snow is on the way today, but not enough to significantly change the avalanche conditions. There is a small chance of triggering a large avalanche on buried weak layers 2 to 6' deep from a thin spot in the snowpack. This problem is isolated to slopes above 3000'. Lingering wind slabs up to 1' deep near ridgelines and dry loose avalanches in sheltered terrain could be found on specific terrain features. 

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We are sending our thoughts and support to everyone affected by the ongoing avalanche incident near Truckee, California. Rescue efforts continue in challenging conditions following an avalanche yesterday (Feb 17) involving a group skiing from a backcountry hut. Multiple people have been located and evacuated, with approximately 9 individuals still unaccounted for at this time. Information remains preliminary, and we hope for the best in this tragic and dangerous situation.

Avalanche problems

  • Deep Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    2–3

    Recent Avalanches: We got to Lost Lake on Sunday and saw only one avalanche that may have been recent. This looked like a small wind slab. It was hard to tell because the wind was blowing strongly and the crown was getting filled in.

    Light snowfall is expected throughout the region today, but the southwesterly flow associated with this storm tends to favor the Anchorage Front Range and Hatcher Pass for heavier snowfall totals. About 1 to 3" of new snow is expected from Girdwood through Seward today, with the rain line possibly rising to 500'. This amount of new snow is not going to be enough to form new snow avalanche problems. 

    Our main avalanche concern today is the very low likelihood of triggering a large avalanche on a buried weak layer 2 to 6' deep.  The snowpack has been gaining strength over time, but a skier or rider still has a small chance of triggering an avalanche from a thin spot in the snowpack near rocks or a wind-scorred ridge. This problem is isolated to higher elevations, above 3000', due to the ice crusts that formed in the snowpack below this elevation two weeks ago. To avoid this issue, you can stick to lower elevation slopes or limit your exposure to large steep slopes in the alpine.

    In addition to the buried weak layers, you could find an isolated stubborn wind slab from the recent strong winds in steep terrain near a ridgeline. Dry loose avalanches (sluffs) are also possible if you can find an area sheltered from the wind.

    NWS Anchorage Snowfall Forecast for Today's Storm.

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