Avalanche forecast

Mount Shasta

Mount Shasta Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Tue
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Out of date — this forecast expired 6 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Heavy snowfall and active winds have loaded the snowpack. Human-triggered avalanches large enough to bury you are possible on slopes steeper than 35 degrees. Watch for red flags of avalanche danger. Conservative decision-making, careful snowpack assessment, and simple terrain choices will reduce your exposure to this problem. 

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Spicy avalanche conditions will start the day off. Storm slabs pose a significant hazard on slopes steeper than 35 degrees, where multiple buried interfaces could produce large natural or human-triggered avalanches. Storm snow will be most reactive on convex rollovers and unsupported slopes. Continually assess the cohesiveness of surfaces as you travel and identify features and areas of concern like terrain traps and trigger points. 

    Areas exposed to wind loading, such as below ridgelines, rollovers, and rock outcrops, harbor locally deeper drifts and a higher potential for consequential avalanches. Observe for newly formed wind lips, which will point in the direction of recent loading and wind-stiffened or rippled surfaces. Wind-affected snow may exist in sheltered areas like glades and chutes. Use inconsequential test slopes to gauge the snow’s stability. Sudden collapses and shooting cracks underfoot or machine indicate unsafe conditions and should steer you to simpler terrain.      

    (2/15/2026)

    A locally deeper drifted area on a west aspect near treeline failing on a layer of graupel buried foot deep

    Photo: Eric Falconer

Avalanche Discussion

Over the past 48 hours, Mount Shasta and the surrounding mountains have received a significant amount of new snow—over a foot in most places—an abrupt load after a relatively stable period. While this is a warm welcome, it will be paramount to start small and test conditions before committing to bigger terrain. Recent observations identified multiple reactive layers within the storm snow, most notably a graupel layer at the old/new snow interface. This layer has shown easy propagation and is the primary weak layer of concern. It may be buried a foot to two feet deep, dependent on location. Forecasters have uncertainty about these buried interfaces and how reactive they may remain under this recent load and thus opted for a higher danger rating near treeline. 

Snowfall and stormy weather will taper during the day before another wave arrives tonight. This brief break may allow the snowpack time to settle and strengthen, resulting in more of a moderate feel, before an additional load is added. Tree wells also pose a hazard—travel with a partner, maintain visual contact, and communicate clearly.

Remember, “When snow is the problem, terrain is the solution.”  

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