Avalanche forecast

Tetons

Bridger-Teton Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Wed
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

 Strong winds and heavy snowfall create dangerous avalanche conditions. It will be easy to trigger an avalanche 2-3 feet deep within the newest snowfall today. Avoid areas where you see smooth, rounded pillows of snow or where you feel the snow surface change from softer to stiffer. Dial back steep terrain selection and be alert to the consequences of being caught in a slide where you are traveling. 

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    You will find drifted snow 2-3 feet deep at upper and middle elevations today, as well as on more exposed sections of terrain, rocky features, and saddles. Even small amounts of snowfall can load deeply—in this case; the wind has plenty of ammunition. Avalanches may break easily on the old snow surface, even in more sheltered locations, but given the intensity of the wind, it may be difficult to find slopes that have not seen some wind effect today. Be on the lookout for wave-like texture, rippled snow, or surfaces that are stiff or drifted. Cracking or collapsing are clear signs of instability, so pause to regroup with your partners (or collect your own thoughts) and reassess steep terrain today. Sheltered terrain will provide the safest riding. If you travel in avalanche terrain now, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making are essential.

    Cornice Falls: Observations of cornice failures continue to be reported. Give cornices a very wide buffer zone, and be careful along ridgelines as they can break further back than expected. Falling cornices can impact deeply buried weak layers and trigger large avalanches.

    (2/24/2024)

    A wind slab that caught and carried a skier 500 feet in Grand Teton National Park.

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    Changing weather means giving slopes with older, weak snow a very wide buffer. Hard slabs 3-5 feet thick overlay weak snow that formed earlier in the season. We expect to see some natural avalanches breaking on deeper, weak snow in this zone. Steep, rocky, unsupported, and wind-affected terrain on the north half of the compass remains suspect. Thin spots in the slab (trigger points) are most common in these locations. While it has become unlikely for a human to trigger one of these slabs, larger triggers such as cornice fall, smaller avalanches, or even snowmobiles still have the potential to impact weak layers buried deeply in the snowpack. Extra caution is advised in terrain where problems #1 and #2 overlap.

     

    (2/17/2024) Photo: Teton County SAR

    A very large persistent slab avalanche that occurred on No Name Peak after a period of significant loading.

Avalanche Discussion

THE ROSE—Who doesn't love fresh snowfall? February has provided better riding conditions. We've had a reprieve from an early winter season spent in an entrenched "if it's steep, it will bite" mindset. 

THE THORN—Remember the first half of the winter when we had one primary weak layer of snow and knew that each loading event would likely produce large avalanches and dangerous conditions? In many ways, that time was easier than now. More dangerous, sure—but simple and predictable from a forecasting standpoint. Our snowpack isn't as hair-trigger but has more complexity based on location. In many ways, this makes it a much less predictable animal. Two things are certain in my mind: the first is that changing weather (especially with consistent wind) will make for more hazardous conditions. The other is that I would be shocked not to see avalanches breaking on deeper, old, weak snow in the second avalanche problem above in select locations. I'm currently avoiding terrain across all the zones where I can still find weaker snow easily—where it is shallower—and terrain that has already avalanched several times this season. 

THE BUD—Realizing that snowpack conditions are complex can be relieving. It requires a shift in our approach to the problem—we can simplify the situation by returning to the basics—new snow + wind + weak snow = dangerous conditions. Luckily, we also have plenty of tools to combat the complexity. We can read a forecast and gather useful information, look for evidence of the problems in the field, assess and reassess as winds or weather change, and still ride plenty of fun snow this week by choosing terrain wisely. We've been burying weak snow from earlier in the season deeper and deeper, and it's slowly become dormant. This has left room for entering fun avalanche terrain after storm cycles pass, but we still need to remember that even small avalanches can be dangerous. New snow problems need to be given their respect, even if they seem more manageable. Finding reasons to say "yes" to a given slope is easy. So operate from where you have uncertainty versus certainty, be your own devil's advocate, and look for evidence pointing to the "no." Enjoy some fun riding today, keep it tight, and dial back slope angles while the new snowfall settles out. 

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