Avalanche forecast

Northern New Mexico

Taos Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
4 · High
Treeline
4 · High
Below
3 · Considerable
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Highlights

An avalanche warning remains in effect today as new snow and strong winds will create very dangerous avalanche conditions.  You can easily trigger avalanches big enough to bury you and may continue to see avalanches release naturally with continued loading.  Travel in and around avalanche terrain is not recommended today. 

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Very Likely
    Size
    1–2

    The National Weather Service has us under a high wind warning for today with winds expected to be in the 50 to 70 mph range.  14 to 18 inches of snow yesterday will easily be transported by the strong west winds today and create dangerous wind slabs. Watch for obvious wind-drifted pillows and stiffening of the snow underfoot avoiding being on underneath slopes that are actively loading.  A smaller Wind Slab avalanche has the potential to step down into deeper weak layers creating a larger more destructive avalanche that may not be survivable. 

    An example of an obvious wind-drifted pillow from Lake Fork Peak. With such strong winds today expect more loading to happen further down off of ridglines mid-slope.  

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2–2.5

    New snow and strong winds will continue to load and build slabs over a very weak and shallow snowpack that existed before last week's storms.  Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) totals over the last week are close to 3". Weak facets and depth hoar near the ground struggled to handle last Sunday's storm and will continue to struggle with additional loading as they have not received much of a break over the last several days. Give avalanche path runouts wide berths as these types of conditions lend themselves to remotely triggering avalanches from the flats below.  We've had widespread natural avalanches over the last several days and expect to see more natural avalanches with continued wind loading today.  

    Slabs will continue to build (3 to 5 feet thick) on top of a weak and faceted snowpack that existed before storms arrived in January.  The additional weight will continue to stress these persistent weak layers.

    Photo: Andy Bond (1/9/2024)

Avalanche Discussion

2024 has come in with a bang. Since January 4th we've picked up over 3 feet of snow and close to 3" of SWE.  Yesterday's storm overproduced quickly with close to a foot of snow in a couple of hours with intense 2 to 3-inch-an-hour snowfall rates.  Snow came to an end overnight but dropped 14 to 18 inches and 0.75" of SWE. West winds have picked up in the early morning hours and are expected to be in the 50 to 70 mph range throughout the day. 

Today will be about the winds as strong West winds will easily transport and drift snow into thicker and stiffer slabs that will be very easy to trigger.  Continued loading will also continue to stress faceted weak layers and depth hoar near the ground that formed during the December drought period.  These layers are now buried under 3 to 5-foot slabs from storms over the last several days.  These persistent weak layers have been reactive with natural avalanches having been observed every day since Sunday at all elevations. We suspect that many slopes naturally avalanched yesterday and may see more activity today with rapid loading from strong winds.  The one thing that is changing is the size of avalanches are getting bigger as slabs continue to grow. Avalanches now will easily be big enough to bury and injure you. 

Travel in and around avalanche terrain is not recommended today, but if you do find yourself out in the mountains, avoid terrain that has steep slopes above you as avalanches could run long distances into the flats below.  

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