The exact timing of the storm is a little hard to pin down for Thursday. Danger ratings are based on the assumption that it's snowing/raining/windy for most of the day.
Confidence
Fair - Timing of incoming weather systems is uncertain on Thursday
Weather Forecast
The first of three distinct waves of well organized warm precipitation accompanied by strong SW winds should impact the South Coast Inland around lunch time Thursday. The rain/snow line should initially be around 1000m, steadily rising to 2300m by Thursday night as precipitation intensity increases. The second wave should arrive mid-day Friday with the freezing level hovering around 2300m. The final wave is expected to make its way inland Saturday evening. Storm totals in mm of water are expected to be in the 10 - 100 range.
Avalanche Summary
No new avalanche activity reported Tuesday. On Monday, skiers were triggering soft wind slabs in immediately leeward features up to size 2. On Sunday, small soft wind slabs were reported to be reactive to skier triggering. Sluffing from steep terrain features was also reported.
Snowpack Summary
10 - 30cm of new snow overlies a hard rain crust that exists up to at least 2100m. In exposed terrain, the new accumulations have been shifted by strong SW winds into wind slabs up to 40cm thick which may be especially reactive due to the underlying crust. Deeper snowpack weaknesses have become unreactive on account of the strong capping crust layer.
Problems
Storm Slabs
Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.